The Clippers and Nuggets will play Game 7 on Saturday, exactly one week since the Thunder won a Game 4 to sweep the Grizzlies.
Game 7 for the Clippers and Nuggets. Off day 7 for the Thunder team that awaits one of them in round 2. And with the Round 2 series not scheduled to start until Monday, the Thunder will be coming off eight days rest compared to two days off for Los Angeles/Denver.
“We’re gonna be very rested and recovered and healthy and they’ll have played high-leverage games all week while we’ve been practicing,” Thunder coach Mark Daigneault said Friday. “There’s obviously trade offs to both, but that’s just what it is. We’re just trying to maximize our situation.”
Rest almost always wins out.
Since 2000, there have been 15 series in which a team coming off a four-game sweep faced a team in the next round that had just played a seven-game series.
In 14 of those instances, the team coming off a sweep beat the team coming off a seven-game slog.
The only outlier came in the 2013 NBA Finals. The Spurs swept the Grizzlies in the Western Conference Finals while the Heat fended off the Pacers in a seven-game Eastern Conference Finals. History would suggest the Spurs would win the NBA Finals, but the Heat — thanks to an iconic Ray Allen 3-pointer in Game 6 — won in seven games.
Granted, rest isn’t the only factor here. A team that swept is often better than a team that won a series in seven. The most recent example coming in the Denver vs. Miami 2023 NBA Finals. Denver swept the Lakers in the West Finals. The Heat dispatched the Celtics in seven. The Nuggets were more rested, but they were also the No. 1 seed in the West going against a No. 8 seed Heat team.
The top-seeded Thunder is/was going to be a heavy favorite over either the Nuggets or Clippers regardless of rest.
The long layoff doesn’t hurt though, even if the Thunder is getting a little antsy.
“You want a break, but not too long of a break,” Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander said.
The Thunder had seven days off last season between the first and second rounds. OKC swept New Orleans while the Mavericks-Clippers series went six games. The Mavs beat the more-rested Thunder in six.
In 2012, when the Thunder made its NBA Finals run, OKC swept Dallas in the first round. Its second-round opponent, the Lakers, played a seven-game first-round series. The Thunder had eight days off heading into the West semifinals. The Lakers had one day off. OKC won that series in five games.
OKC has also been on the other side. In 2011, the Thunder beat the Grizzlies in seven in the West semifinals. Meanwhile, the Mavericks swept the Lakers. Dallas beat OKC in five in the West Finals.
“It’s good for us mentally and physically,” Thunder guard Cason Wallace said.
If there’s any team that could thrive on short rest it’d be the young Thunder, a team on which a 31-year-old Alex Carsuo is treated like a senior citizen. But the benefits of rest certainly outweigh any worries about rust. The games and travel add up.
“The cumulative travel bites into recovery for a number of reasons — sleep, resources and just the psychological comfort of being in your own bed,” Daigneault said.
The Clippers or Nuggets were going to have their hands full against the Thunder no matter what. But bludgeoning each other for seven games while the Thunder recharges is going to make a Round 2 upset even more unlikely.
History favors the team that sweeps (and sleeps).
Teams that swept vs. teams that went seven
2023
- West finals: Nuggets over Lakers (4-0)
- East finals: Heat over Celtics (4-3)
- NBA finals: Nuggets over Heat (4-1)
2017
- West first round: Warriors over Blazers (4-0)
- West first round: Jazz over Clippers (4-3)
- West semifinals: Warriors over Jazz (4-0)
2017
- East semifinals: Cavs over Raptors (4-0)
- East semifinals: Celtics over Wizards (4-3)
- East finals: Cavs over Celtics (4-1)
2016
- East semifinals: Cavs over Hawks (4-0)
- East semifinals: Raptors over Heat (4-3)
- East finals: Cavs over Raptors (4-2)
2014
- East first round: Heat over Bobcats (4-0)
- East first round: Nets over Raptors (4-3)
- East semifinals: Heat over Nets (4-1)
2013
- East first round: Heat over Bucks (4-0)
- East first round: Bulls over Nets (4-3)
- East semifinals: Heat over Bulls (4-1)
2013
- West finals: Spurs over Grizzlies (4-0)
- East finals: Heat over Pacers (4-3)
- NBA Finals: Heat over Spurs (4-3)
2012
- West first round: Thunder over Mavericks (4-0)
- West first round: Lakers over Nuggets (4-3)
- West semifinals: Thunder over Lakers (4-1)
2012
- West first round: Spurs over Jazz (4-0)
- West first round: Clippers over Grizzlies (4-3)
- West semifinals: Spurs over Clippers (4-0)
2011
- West semifinals: Mavericks over Lakers (4-0)
- West semifinals: Thunder over Grizzlies (4-3)
- West Finals: Mavericks over Thunder (4-1)
2010
- East first round: Magic over Bobcats (4-0)
- East first round: Hawks over Bucks (4-3)
- East semifinals: Magic over Hawks (4-0)
2009
- East first round: Cavs over Pistons (4-0)
- East first round: Hawks over Heat (4-3)
- East semifinals: Cavs over Hawks (4-0)
2005
- West first round: Suns over Grizzlies (4-0)
- West first round: Mavericks over Rockets (4-3)
- West semifinals: Suns over Mavericks (4-2)
2004
- East first round: Pacers over Celtics (4-0)
- East first round: Heat over Hornets (4-3)
- East semis: Pacers over Heat (4-2)
2001
- West Finals: Lakers over Spurs (4-0)
- East Finals: 76ers over Bucks (4-3)
- NBA Finals: Lakers over 76ers (4-1)
Joe Mussatto is a sports columnist for The Oklahoman. Have a story idea for Joe? Email him at [email protected]. Support Joe’s work and that of other Oklahoman journalists by purchasing a digital subscription today at subscribe.oklahoman.com.
