By Isabel van Brugen, from Newsweek
While the large -scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia continues in the spotlight, President Vladimir Putin, according to reports, is laying the foundations discreetly for a possible conflict with NATO.
Russia is expanding its military presence along sections from its border with the West, increasing its military expenditure at a record rate and intensifying undercover operations against the West.
NATO must “anticipate the unexpected” and prepare for a Russian attack, said Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer, head of the Military Committee of the alliance, in Brussels last January.
Meanwhile, military and intelligence officials have warned in recent weeks that NATO Member States must be prepared for a possible conflict with Russia.
Newsweek has contacted the Kremlin to request comments by email.
Russian military movements
Russia is expanding its military presence along its borders with Finland and Norway in preparation for a possible confrontation with the Military Alliance, the Wall Street Journal reported Monday.
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The Kremlin plans to establish a new army headquarters in the Russian city of Petrozavodsk, about 160 kilometers east of the border with Finland, which will supervise tens of thousands of soldiers over the next few years. Many of these soldiers will be deployed in the area after the end of the war in Ukraine.
At the same time, Russia is intensifying military recruitment and accelerating weapons production.
Russian military experts told the newspaper that the concentration of troops on the border with Finland probably is part of the widest preparations of President Vladimir Putin for a possible conflict with NATO.
«When the troops return [de Ucrania]they will be observing on the other side of the border a country that they consider an adversary, ”said Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Center for the analysis of strategies and technologies, a Moscow -based defense studies center. “The logic of the last decade indicates that we foresee some conflict with NATO.”
There are indications that Russia is beginning to retain the newly produced team deployment in Ukraine and, instead, it is reasolding part of its staff to other regions, such as the Baltic and Nordic countries, as told Newsweek Edward Arnold, principal researcher of the Royal United Expert Group United Services Institute (Rusi).
“However, this activity is far from an accumulation of troops,” said Arnold. «Many of the units usually parked in the north have become ineffective in combat while fighting in Ukraine, so this Russian activity is rebuilding and recapitizing lost forces. Therefore, it indicates that Russia is already beginning to look beyond Ukraine.
Warnings of German, Lithuanian and Danish intelligence services
German intelligence services have warned that Russia’s ambitions go beyond Ukraine. A report from the German Federal Intelligence Service (BND) of March warned that Putin is preparing for a conflict with NATO.
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According to the Evaluation of the BND, Russia could be fully prepared for a “conventional large -scale war” by 2030.
“Russia is involved in a systemic conflict with the West and is prepared to implement its imperialist objectives through military force, even beyond Ukraine,” says the report.
Meanwhile, the Lithuania Intelligence Service, VSD, evaluated that, although Moscow may not yet be ready to launch a large -scale attack against the alliance, it could try to “try NATO” with a limited military operation against one or more member states to evaluate the seriousness with which the block will comply with its collective defense obligations.
An attack by Russia against any NATO member would activate article 5 of the Charter of the Alliance, which establishes that an attack against a Member State will be answered with a collective response.
The Danish Defense Intelligence Service (DDIS) also warned in February that Russia could be prepared to fight a “large -scale war” in Europe in the next five years. While “there is currently no threat of a regular military attack against the kingdom,” Russia’s “military threat increases in the coming years,” according to the report.
Increased military spending
Russia’s military spending is increasing at a record rate, and it is expected to reach about 120 billion euros in 2025, more than 6 % of the country’s GDP. This compares to the 3.6 % before the war.
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The Russian army will also be extended to 1.5 million soldiers, while the volume of weapons and equipment parked along the NATO border is expected to grow between 30 % and 50 %, according to the Russian edition of Bild.
According to a military balance report by the International Institute of Strategic Studies, published in February, Russia’s military spending has surpassed Europe.
Espionage and sabotage activities
West has alerted about the increase in Russian military activity near submarine cables of key communication. There is a growing fear among NATO members that Putin can attack submarine cables and vital critical infrastructure for global communication systems.
For example, a Russian freighter laid on submarine communication cables in the Pacific for weeks, which generated concern about a possible Russian sabotage. Cutting key submarine lines could paralyze communications and disturb global economies, a measure that would benefit Russian interests in any future war with NATO.
This month, the Russian ambassador to the United Kingdom, Andrei Kelin, also refused to deny the press information that indicates that Russia is tracking the country’s nuclear submarines in the waters surrounding Great Britain.
Russia is freeing a growing and violent sabotage and subversion campaign against European and American objectives in Europe, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies in a report published in March.
The report indicated that the number of Russian attacks in Europe almost tripled between 2023 and 2024, after quadruplying between 2022 and 2023. “The data indicates that Russia represents a serious threat to the United States and Europe, and that the Russian government cannot be trusted, including President Vladimir Putin,” says the report.
How is NATO responding?
Given the growing concern of NATO Member States for the collective security of Europe, US President Donald Trump has urged European nations to substantially increase their defense expenditure. The European Commission proposed in March to release about 800 billion euros (867 billion dollars) to allocate them with additional defense expenses.
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Meanwhile, Lithuania, NATO Member State, has fortified a bridge near its border with Russia with anti -tank concrete pyramids, known as “dragon teeth.” These structures were first used during World War II and prevent the progress of tanks and mechanized infantry.
This followed a similar announcement of its neighbor Latvia. Baltic states “are determined to ensure that what happened to Ukraine does not happen to them,” he said previously to Newsweek Roger Hilton, defense researcher at the Slovak Center for Studies Globosec.
NATO general secretary, Mark Rutte, warned Putin in March about a “devastating” response if Moscow attacks any of the members of the Alliance. «If someone is wrong and believes that he can go out with his attacking Poland or any other ally, he will face all the fierce alliance. Our reaction will be devastating. This should be clear to Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and anyone who wants to attack us, ”said Routte.
Posted in cooperation with International Newsweek
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