The Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) corrected its projection of economic growth for this year and passed it from 4% to 3.5%, according to its Macroeconomic Projections update report 2025-2028 published this Wednesday, April 30.
“Due to the high international uncertainty, particularly due to commercial tensions between the United States and China, Peru’s growth forecast for this year is presented conservatively with 3.5%,” is indicated in the document.
Also, the MEF explains that this year’s growth will be sustained by an increase in domestic demand, accelerated thanks to investment in private and public projects, which will allow a greater generation of employment and will boost household consumption, counteracting the high international uncertainty associated with the commercial war.
The private investment that this year will register favorable performance, will grow by the acceleration of mining investment associated with the execution of projects that initiated its construction in previous years, the beginning of the construction of new mining projects, and higher investments of support and exploration.
In that sense, there will also be a positive contribution to the non -mining investment favored by the improvement of investment in transport infrastructure, initial investments of new recently adjudicated app projects, real estate sector, among others.
The report also projects an increase in the offer of mining, agricultural and fishing sectors, as a contribution to economic growth as well as better business expectations, the flexibility of financing costs and the implementation of economic impulse measures.
Growth 2026 – 2028
The MEF projects an average growth of 3.2% during this period, due to an increase in mining investment, which highlights the start of new projects thanks to a better regulatory framework, and not mining for greater infrastructure dynamism.
The report explains that during these years, there will be an impulse thanks to the initial disbursements of APP projects awarded between 2023 and 2024, the viabilization of new adeles, the development of the green hydrogen industry, the investment in the reconditioning of hydrocarbon lots, the progress of large irrigation projects, and the execution of megaprojects of rail connectivity.
“Additionally, exports would continue dynamics, supported by a greater primary offer in sectors such as mining and agricultural. In addition, a gradual recovery of external demand is expected as international uncertainty associated with the commercial war decreases,” is indicated.
For this year, the MEF observes a better scenario for the collection and reduction of public spending. “The fiscal deficit is expected to be reduced to 2.2% of GDP (2024: 3.5% of GDP). The estimated income of 2025 will show a better performance than the previous year, which would be accentuated by specific and temporal factors such as the highest payment of the regularization of the income tax declaration (2025: 1.2% of the GDP; 2024: 0.8% of the PBI) Tax policy measures such as the Special Tax Fractionation Regime ”, is explained.
By 2025 there will be a moderate growth of public spending, explained by the withdrawal of extraordinary capital transfer to Petroperú made in 2024 and a public budget with prudent growth.
