The prediction of a Technical recession In the economy of Mexico at the beginning of 2025 it is about to be fulfilled, since the timely indicator of economic activity (IOAE) showed that two trimesters in contraction would be spun.
It should be remembered that to enter that period they are required two consecutive falls of the gross domestic product (GDP)plus the collapse of the main macroeconomic indicators of the country.
first, the IOAE, carried out by the national Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI), It is the timely fact of the global indicator of economic activity (IGAE) -Proxy monthly GDP- which revealed a fall of 0.04% at a quarterly rate in the first three months of 2025.
This result meant that the national economy It has been in negative field for half a year; In fact, the last time two casualties were spun was during the economic crisis due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Photoarte: Andrea Velázquez
Mexico’s economy also falls to an annual rate
At annual rate, The timely indicator of economic activity decreased 0.09% In the January-March period of this year, which also meant the second setback.
So, Economic theory indicates that a contraction of Mexico’s GDP in the first three months of the current year would causeconsidering other variables, that the national territory will enter a technical recession. The above, because GDP decreased 0.6% in the last quarter of 2024.
Business trust is maintained in the focus, considering the continuous deterioration of the indicator, mainly in the manufacturing component with timely concern in the investment, future situation of the company and exports, the above under the current uncertainty of world trade and imposition of tariffs
Monex points out.
Advanced indicator and internal demand
The first indicator that gave signs of a possible recession was the advance indicator of the INEGI, which reveals that from the last quarter from 2024 to February this yearthe national economy is located in recessive phase.
By indicator of domestic demand, private consumption, which is the largest component of aggregate demand by representing 71% of national GDPaccording to its timely fact, 1.5% at an annual rate last March, being the fourth consecutive decline.
Meanwhile, gross fixed capital formation, which allows to know the behavior of investment in fixed assets in the short termdecreased 5.9% per year in the first month of 2025, its fifth decline in the thread and the worst result in four years.
Finally, Exports barely grew 0.003% during Februaryalthough inside the 7.40% setbacks in agricultural, 9.85% in extractive and 0.31% in manufacturing.
You may be interested:
For more information visit our YouTube channel
