Leopoldo Martínezexpert in public policies and president of the Center for Democracy and Development in the Americas, CDDAwarned that Venezuela is at a critical turning point.
The statements of the former councilor of the United States Department of Commerce under the administration of Joe Biden, were given during the Conference of JP Morgan Within the framework of FMI/world Bank spring meetings.
Martínez pointed out that there is no viable way towards the presidency to Edmundo González Urrutia Despite the great support he received in the controversial presidential elections of the July 28, 2024 with the support of the opposition leader María Corina Machado.
The armed forces and the Venezuelan power apparatus remain unified in the rejection of any transition led by the opposition based on the results of these elections.
“The regime perceives that the opposition acts under a logic of all or nothing, and in the end that is also its behavior”Martínez said.
“There is no way, no space for negotiation. The armed forces are aligned against a transition that they consider closed to cohabitation, amnesty or the distribution of power – positively to any form of transition that is not led by themselves. And although there is some uncertainty about their total loyalty to Maduro, the system remains completely closed.”
Martínez also assured that economic pressures on Maduro’s regime are increasingespecially after the reversal of the relief of sanctions by the United States in the energy sector and the imposition of tariffs secondary to Venezuelan oil buyers.
The Venezuelan politician stressed that Inflation and cost of living are the main concerns of the populationwith more than 65% prioritizing economic stability over political change.
Although Maduro’s approval is in historical minimums – only 22% -, Martínez warned that time does not play in favor of the opposition either.
Public trust in María Corina Machado and Edmundo González is decreasingwhile political detachment grows, with 61% of Venezuelans without identifying with any party.
Martínez warned that “This is a dangerous stagnation” and? “Maduro is increasingly isolated and vulnerable, but the impulse of the opposition also fades. The longer this stagnation is prolonged, the more public faith is eroded in all institutions”.
The official described the parliamentary and regional elections provided for May 2025 as a “Irrelevant event” For a real political change.
-“The importance of these elections lies not in their results, but in what they reveal on the evolution of internal dynamics within Chavismo”said Martínez. “We could begin to see the emergence of factions that are prepared for a post-maduro scenario”.
In addition, two plausible scenarios for the political future of Venezuela were exposed by the president of the CDDA.
One of them consists of a internal turn within Chavismo driven by economic pressure and fragmentation of elites.
The other panorama, according to Martínez, would find a financial lifeguards provided by China that reinforces the control of Maduro and accelerates the isolation of Venezuela from the western world.
Martínez asked those responsible for US policy to reject both extreme pressure and transactional approach.
Instead, He urged a strategy of principles and pragmatism that foster the opening within the regime while maintaining the requirement of firm democratic standards.
“It is not of interest to the National Security of the United States generate more instability in Venezuela”he said, adding that it is not “Strategically sensible to retire from all kinds of economic and constructive diplomatic commitment, especially when that only opens space to the authoritarian influence of China or Russia”.
He also offered a forceful criticism of the Trump administration policy to Venezuela, particularly in the migratory field.
“Among the positions found by the Rubio Secretary – which advocates maximum pressure – and the transactional model previously defended by the special former Ric Grenelll, the only coherent policy has been the inhuman treatment towards Venezuelan migrants”he said.
He also added that efforts are being witnessed to execute mass deportations or implement policies designed to “Inducing the ‘self-deportation’ of a community that has contributed significantly to the social fabric of the United States”.
The official closed pointing out that this position is justified with unfounded statements about generalized crime among Venezuelan migrants particularly linked to the band of Aragua.
That narrative, according to Congress Supervision Committees revelations, It has been discredited by 17 of the 18 United States Intelligence Agencies.
