The month of the start of the new exchange scheme with floating dollar Inflation would end by being lower than the 3.7% that marked Marchaccording to the April estimates that the consultants closed in the last hours. The official INDEC data will be known on Wednesday, May 14.
The initial expectation had been, before the “phase 3 ″ of the economic plan was launched, in an additional price jump to which it had already taken place in March, when it touched a maximum in the monthly rate of the CPI in six months. A milder exchange movement than expected -since the exchange rate fluctuated between the center of the band of fluctuation and the floor- avoided a transfer at marked prices, as the consultants that make weekly follow-ups.
Analytica said: “During the fourth week of April we recorded a weekly variation of the 0,4% in the food and drink prices of Greater Buenos Aires. “” In this way, the average four weeks is 2,8%”, Said that consultant, so the monthly CPI projection is 3,4%something slighter to what they estimated days ago.
“The greatest increase in the average of the last four weeks occurred in vegetables (+7.9%) and meats and derivatives (+3.2 percent). Among the categories with lower increases are sugar, sweets and chocolates (+1.2%) and coffee, tea, yerba and cocoa (+1.2 percent). On the other hand, reductions in fruits prices (-1.1 percent) ANALYTICS
For its part, Ecogo located its April inflation estimate in 3%which would also imply a deceleration with respect to March. The last week had an increase in food and drinks 0,5% and of 3,9% monthly.
“The Core RPM inflation was 2.4% monthly, marking an acceleration of 0.2 points compared to last month. The measurement, which excludes regulated and seasonal items, thus reaches an interannual increase of 45.9 percent. The variation in the price of goods reached 45.1% year runs Marina Dal Poggetto.
“In April, the regulated prices registered an increase in 2,7%driven by the increase in prepaid (average 2.5%), collective in PBA and CABA (4.4%), light rates (1.7%), gas (1.8%) and water (1%), fuels (1.8%), ”he explained on the other hand.“ Seasonal prices recorded an increase of 6.4%in the month, contributing to maintaining the indicator ongoing. Like the previous month, the increases registered in the price of fruits and vegetables, which recorded increases of 7.5% and 8% respectively, were highlighted, ”he estimated.
LCG also closed April weekly prices. The price variation report of food and drinks of the last part of the month showed a fall of the 0,4% In this area, after 11 consecutive weeks of increases. This decline compensated for the increase in baked products, evidencing volatility in price variation in the food sector. 72% of the products in the food basket maintained their price without variations.
At the monthly level, the average inflation of the last four weeks was reduced, below 3% for food and drinks, after 10 weeks above this threshold. This improvement is mainly due to the fall in vegetable prices, which averaged a decline in 2.9 percent. Meats continue to be the main engine of inflation in this item, since it represents 60% of the monthly variation.
The consultant Balancingmeanwhile, closed its IPC estimate of April in 3,3%with nucleus inflation at 3.4 percent. Throughout the month, the items that grew the most were alcoholic and tobacco drinks with 4.7%, clothing and footwear with 4.1%, restaurants and hotels with 4%and food and drinks with 3.8 percent.
This week the Minister of Economy Luis Caputo He said before entrepreneurs that “today it makes no sense, say, economic, that there is inflation” and that “inflation will collapse” and added that “prices can even go down” and anticipated reductions in sectors such as clothing, cars and some services.
The President Javier Mileialso within the framework of Expoefi, “inflation has a death date at the middle of next year. And it will end because monetary policy acts with a lag that ranges between 18 and 24 months. Now is the time to start thinking about growing.”
