He national Meteorological Service (SMN) He anticipated that he Winter 2025 It could be warmer than normal in Buenos Aires, La Pampa and the center of Argentina. It is a forecast that responds to statistical models and international simulations.
According to the new quarterly report prepared by the experts of the public body, There is a greater probability that the average temperatures are located within the category “normal or higher than normal.”
This implies values that could be located up to half grade above the historical average.
The official map of the forecast shows that the province of Buenos Aires, the south of Córdoba, Santa Fe, Entre Ríos and La Pampa present a greater probability of registering average temperatures “normal or higher than normal” during the May-June-Julio quarter. In the same situation are regions of NOA and the coast.
In addition, Cuyo and Patagonia have an even greater probability of experiencing a winter with temperatures greater than usual. The southern end is the most likely area of this behavior.
In dialogue with Infobae, Diego AraneoResearcher in Sciences of the atmosphere of the Argentine Institute of Nivology, Gracia and Environmental Sciences (Ianigla)of the Conicet in Mendoza, explained: “We are leaving a brief period of a girl and starting a neutral phase. But the system has some inertia and the atmospheric pressure anomalies generated by the girl still remain for a while.”
In particular, he said, “the high pressures on the Pacific and Atlantic oceans (which always appear as a response to the girl) on the coasts of South America added to the fact that the seas adjacent to the coasts of Chile and Argentina still remain warm can shock the temperatures of the next winter and make They tend to be warmer than usual”.
The SMN uses historical records to divide the data into three equal groups: lower, normal and superior. Each group is called “third.”
For example, if the historical average in June is 10 degrees, the values above 10.5 are located in the “superior to normal” category. The prognosis does not indicate an exact figure, but the probability that this strip will be reached.
This does not mean that in the winter it does not feel cold. There may even be frosts. But the analysis only shows a trend for the average quarter.
The forecast is made with global models and statistical tools of the SMN. Ocean data, atmosphere and numerical predictions are combined.
It is not a daily forecast. Nor does it anticipate extremes. Inform what is the most likely category according to current data. Therefore, it does not replace the daily meteorological part.
The SMN clarifies that, although the average indicates more heat, cold air can be given. These events are not reflected in the seasonal scale models.
A polar front, for example, can cause a week with very low temperatures. That does not modify the quarterly average, but it does impact on everyday life.
The public body recommended following the alert system and the weekly parts that do reflect short -term changes.
For him Metropolitan Area of Buenos Aires and the Province of La Pampa, an end of autumn and a winter with normal values is expected or below the average.
The SMN classifies the rains with the same system of “terciles “. If normal winter brings 100 millimeters, a “lower” forecast could involve less than 70 millimeters.
Other regions such as the NOA and Norte de whose will be in dry season. This means that very few rains are expected at the time of year.
The climate forecast considers the conditions of the Pacific Ocean. In April, the SMN confirmed that there is no active presence of The boy or the girl. The phenomenon is in neutral phase.
Sea water shows areas with Mild warming near South America. Meanwhile, in other parts of the ocean there are colder areas. This combination is not enough to activate a strong event.
Los trade winds They intensified in the west of the ocean. Near South America, on the other hand, they weakened. These data confirm the neutrality of the phenomenon.
According to international and national models, there is 77% probability that the neutral phase will continue during the April-May-June quarter. This indicates that there will not be a dominant phenomenon that pushes the conditions towards extremes.
