The tariff war, but above all, random cancellations of visas and the arrests of foreign tourists have scared tourists who intended to visit the United States. So much so, that airlines and Air France-KLM and Lufthansa have alerted this week of demand weakening of transatlantic tickets, one of the most traveled air routes in the world.
“We know that there are many customers who are waiting to buy tickets until there are a little more clarity in … the border, and things like that,” said the Air France-Klm CEO, Ben Smith, on Wednesday in a call with analysts. In the same line Carsten Spohr, CEO of Lufthansa, also said on Tuesday that some European passengers were showing undecided when buying transatlantic flights, which is being reflected in a certain weakening of reserves for summer.
“When it comes to traveling on vacation to the United States, especially from Germany, Austria and Switzerland, it is easy to imagine conversations around the kitchen table where families are saying ‘we don’t know if we really want to go,” he said. Consequently, the airline has trimmed their traveler forecasts in the fourth quarter of an increase of 6% year -on -year to 3%, although he expects the demand to recover.
The situation is more flagrant if the Canada data, whose citizens have reduced their purchase of tickets to travel to the United States by 21% in the face of summer in the middle of Trump’s threats, who believes that the country should have voted for it in the elections last Monday and begin to be the state number 51. Only that fall in Canadian travelers puts business at risk in all Florida, New York, Maine and other parts of the country.
These data do not come to the airlines well-France-KLM already registered in the first quarter losses of 328 million euros, 161 million less than in the same quarter of last year-but above all they do not interest the United States.
If the situation worsens by the Commercial War, by the Migration policies Or simply because foreigners begin to see the United States as a destination that is better not to travel, the travel sector could be severely affected, and represents about 3% of American GDP, which is equivalent to about 1.3 billion dollars and 15 million jobs, according to data from the US Travel Association, the employer of the sector.
Los trips from Germany have fallen 30% this March compared to the same month last year, which has to do with the fact that Holy Week has fallen this year in April, but transport experts also indicate the possibility of being related to that “Negative feeling” that could have arisen in front of policies of the Trump administration, in addition to the fears for its management of the border and immigration, which has led to tourists who had the papers in order.
In March it was known that four Germans, Three tourists and a resident in the United States were arrested, some for weeks For the Immigration and Customs Control Service (ICE) without knowing why, which caused the German government to warn its citizens of the risks of traveling to the US. The one who had residence permit in the country was retained for hours without being able to sleep, eat or drink, and without their medication, to the point that he had to be transferred to a hospital. Both he and his lawyer have moved that at no time they were told why he was held.
In the case of the three tourists, who were deported to Germany after being arrested two weeks, six and twenty -four hours, respectively. The first was visiting his girlfriend in Nevada; The second is a tattooist who was arrested when trying to enter the country from Mexico and the last one tried to go on vacation to New York and Miami when the police interrogated her, inspected the mobile phone and sent her back to Germany, again, without knowing the reason, as the German medium has explained extensively DW.
“Visiting the United States is not a right. It is an extended privilege to those who respect our laws and values,” said Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, recently in an opinion column. “We hope, and the law demands that all visa holders demonstrate their admissibility every day while their visa is in force.”
Facing May and June, Air France-KLM has registered a fall in flight purchases From Europeans to the United States of 2.4% compared to the previous year, although on the opposite side tourism has grown: the reserves of Americans who will visit Europe have risen 2.1%. The blow, therefore, will not only be for the United States as a country, but also for a good number of European airlines whose income depends on these tickets. According to a Barclays analysis, trips to the US are at least 50% of the billing of the three largest European airlines, which are Lufthansa, British Airways and the aforementioned Air France-KLM.
In addition to the sale of tickets, too The actions of these three European airlines They have been harmed by the uncertainty generated by Donald Trump’s policies. Throughout the last month, Lufthansa has fallen into the stock market by 6%, while IAG has done it 15% since he returned to the presidency.
However, if the fear of entering the United States is consolidated, those same travelers could end choosing other destinationsalready moved by leisure or work, such as Canada or Mexico. “The travel industry is experiencing worrying trends,” said a spokesman for the US Travel to employer Axios, which includes those “doubts about whether they will be well received in the United States.”
The uncertainty of tourism analysts is extraordinary, without anyone knowing if tourists will recover and continue to arrive in the US at the same levels that did it before, and how these movements will affect the transport industry. To clear those doubts, it will be important to find out if the falls in the reserves have really to do with Trump and their policies, or if they perhaps respond more to the economic situation of travelers, And therefore, it depends on the country.
One of the cases that seems clearer, in that line, is that of Canada. The fall in tickets with a car from Canada to the United States is huge, 4 ‘% this month compared to it last year. Tickets in vehicles are not usually planned as in advance as flights, and that is why analysts use them as a faster thermometer when measuring changes in the perception of a country. In addition, domestic flight reserves, within Canada, have increased 6% in the summer.
