Robust coffee prices fall below $ 5,300 per ton

The Vietnam Basic Stock Exchange (MXV) reported that the world market for raw materials continued to fluctuate in yesterday’s negotiation session (May 7). At the end of the session, an overwhelming selling pressure pushed the MXV index at 2,160 points, 19 points less than in the previous session. It should be noted that in the energy market the prices of two oil derived products fell more than 1.5%. Meanwhile, the coffee market was under selling pressure after the latest report of the Brazilian crop supply agency (CONAB) was published.

MXV Index

Coffee prices under great pressure after Conab report

According to MXV, the prices of two coffee raw materials were weakened simultaneously after the latest report of the Brazilian Agency for Culture Supply (CONAB) was published.

Specifically, the price of Arabica coffee for the July contract in the New York parquet decreased 1.47% to 8,467 USD/ton, while the price of robust coffee for the July contract in the London parquet continued to decrease 0.32% to 5,239 USD/ton.

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In its latest report, CONAB raised its prognosis for the production of coffee from Brazil 2025-26 to 55.67 million tons, 2.7% more than last year and almost 7.5% more than its initial forecast in January. However, while Arabica production is expected to fall 6.6% to 36.98 million bags, the production of robust is expected to increase 27.9% to 18.7 million bags. The CONAB indicated that the ascending adjustment of production was mainly due to the recognition that stable and favorable climatic conditions supported coffee plants during the important development stage.

Coffee prices weaken in general after publication of the Conab report

The robust harvest in Brazil has already begun, while Arabica is still in the development phase and is expected to be collected in the middle of the year. At the same time, Arabica coffee inventories certified in the New York floor continued to drastically increase, reaching almost 844,475 bags of 60 kg, the highest level since March, of which more than 92% were stored in Europe. It should be noted that the inventories of Brazilian Arabica represented more than 53% of the registered total volumes, while the Mexican Arabica represented around 8.5%.

Another remarkable development in the raw material market was that the prices of cotton ended the commercial session of May 7 with a slight fall of 0.66% to $ 1,485 / ton. On the offer of the offer, the recent rainfall in western Texas have been almost ideal during the last two or three weeks, which supports a stable harvest perspective, except for unexpected changes in the weather or the feeling of the market.

According to the crop progress report published by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) on May 5, the progress of cotton planting in the United States has reached 21% of the total area, compared to 15% of last week and slightly exceeding the average of five years of 20%. Meanwhile, the USDA weekly report published on May 2 showed that net American cotton sales for the year 2024-25 reached 108,400 PACAS in the week that ended on April 24, 4% more than the previous week, but still 21% below the recent average of four weeks.

Crude oil prices fall again

In yesterday’s session, El Red covered almost the entire energy market when 4 of the 5 basic products simultaneously dropped its price. After a recovery session, oil prices returned to the weak area amid concerns about the demand for consumption in the United States and new events in relations between the United States and Iran that show cooling signals.

At the close, the price of Brent oil fell to 61.12 USD/Barril, 1.66% less. Similarly, the WTI oil price lost 1.73%, to $ 58.07 per barrel.

Energy Price List

According to the latest report of the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA), commercial inventories of crude oil in the United States in the week that ended on May 2 decreased by around 2 million barrels, according to estimates of the American Petroleum Institute (API). However, two other EIA figures caught the attention of investors: oil supplies in the refineries fell into 7,000 barrels per day, while gasoline inventories increased by 188,000 barrels compared to the previous week. The United States is now preparing to enter the high summer season, which is usually a period of strong increases in gasoline consumption due to the travel needs of Americans. However, the information of the last EIA report showed figures contrary to predictions, which caused the market to be even more concerned about the prospects for gasoline consumption in the United States this summer.

In addition, other information that received the attention of the market was the decision on the interest rates of the United States Federal Reserve (FED). As the market expected, the Fed maintained interest rates at a relatively high level of 4.5% to stop inflation. This not only supports the strength of the dollar, but also suffocates the increase in economic activities and even economic growth; Which puts pressure on oil prices.

Meanwhile, the cooling of relations between the United States and Iran has also fed the weakening of world prices of crude oil. Within the framework of an event sponsored by the Munich Security Forum that takes place in Washington, DC. The American vice president, JD Vance, made statements in which he affirmed that the dialogue between the US and Iran remains well and both parties “go in the right direction.” In addition, the market also awaits trade negotiations between the United States and China planned for May 10 in Switzerland. Although it is positive information that helps prevent the fall in oil prices, investors are still cautious about the result of this negotiation. In his testimony before the Financial Services Committee of the House of Representatives yesterday, Secretary Besent said that this was only the beginning and that it would be difficult to achieve important steps towards a commercial agreement.

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