Commercial tensions have broken the complacency of markets and left obsolete the forecasts of analysis firms. The 90 -day truce for the imposition of reciprocal tariffs and the beginning of the negotiations have served to contain the falls. Wall Street and European indexes such as IBEX 35 have recovered the levels prior to the day of liberation, but uncertainty remains high. Managers expect volatility to remain high and warn that generalized increases such as views in recent years are already a thing of the past.
In a scenario in which the prospects for economic slowdown, and even recession, they have not stopped increasing, investors redouble their appetite for defensive profile values. Those quoted with stable and attractive income from dividend gain ground, and within this group, the eLtricas (also called utilities In stock jargon) they stand out strongly. Although it was one of the sectors most punished by the aggressive rise in the types, the industry has managed to revalue 14.7% so far from 2025, recovering levels not seen since 2008, according to the Bloomberg sector index. With the increases of recent weeks utilities The high types cycle is over.
Revaluations have been a constant in recent months, but they have accentuated as Donald Trump harden the tone. RBC analysts point out that, during the months of March and April, investors have opted for las electric in search of defensive exposure. “It seems logical because regulated companies offer long -term protection against inflationary pressures and the weakness of economic activity,” they point out.
Beyond their defensive profile, Bank of America analysts highlight that the stock market behavior of the utilities It is being backed by the regulatory updates planned for the coming months in markets such as Spanish, German or British. The ambitious fiscal plan approved by Germany contemplates the increase in defense expenditure and the creation of a fund of up to 100,000 million that will be destined for investments in climate and infrastructure, where investments related to energy could be included.
The expectations generated by the program have allowed E.on to record 38.9%, promotions that lead him to lead the profits of the sector in Europe. Bank of America analysts highlight that German energy has already indicated the possibility of directly benefiting from subsidies for investments in areas such as the recharge of electric vehicles or urban heating.
-The changes are not limited to the European locomotive. Barclays and Bank of America analysts find that it has strongly resolved the possibility of expanding the useful life of nuclear power plants as France already did, an idea that charges even more strength after the electrical failure last week. If Barclays analysts are taken, they believe that one of the most benefited contributed would be Endesa (28.2%). The analysts of the British entity have recently uploaded the recommendation to be raised and anticipate a growth of the benefit. For its part in GVC Gaesco, they emphasize that the company is fully focused on the Iberian market. That is, it offers protection against an eventual resurgence of commercial relations to which the attractive remuneration to the shareholder is added and the reinforcement of its renewable energy portfolio.
Together with Endesa, Goldman Sachs analysts highlight their preference for Iberdrola. Although the Spanish electricity rises 20% in 2025, entity’s experts reiterate the purchase recommendation and raise the target price to 18 euros. That is, they give it a potential of more than 13%. “Our hypothesis of standardization of electricity prices results in an increase in the benefit per action of 7%. The turn to electrical networks implies a profit margin,” they emphasize.
Goldman Sachs analysts remember that in previous crises such as puntocomthe US and China’s pandemic or commercial warfare in 2019, utilities They exceeded the European Variable Income between 10% and 30%. “We believe that these companies offer defensive characteristics in a context of growing concern for the recession thanks to the least volatility of its benefits,” they say. Since last April 2, the sector in Europe rises 3.8%, compared to the 0.1% drop in Stoxx 600.
As a point in favor, the experts of the American entity indicate the low valuations. “Although the upper relative performance could be coming to an end, we do not consider that the current valuations are excessively punitive,” they add. Experts are cautious and point out that for the speed of recent months to maintain a growing recession probability, a prolonged bearish market and a new drop of types.
Next to the regulation, Bank of America analysts point as a long -term catalyst for the sale of energy to the data centers. “The ambitions of the data centers will continue, but it is more likely that the deployments are progressively reduced. The electricity continues to commit beyond simple access to the electricity grid and study how to meet the demand and offer complementary services,” they say.
