The decision of the Central Bank not to intervene in the market while the exchange rate is between the exchange bands It is generating expected consequences. On the one hand, the dollar operates with downward pressure, but at the same time worries the level of reserves.
Yesterday, the stock fell again and from the peak reached on April 28, after the IMF disbursements and the World Bank, the reduction already touches the USD 1.3 billion.
With the fall of yesterday, in fact, the USD 38,000 million were drilled, while at the end of last month they had almost reached USD 39.3 billion. There are several explanations for this situation to occur. For example, the variation of gold affects daily accounting, the same if there is reduction of deposits in dollars and especially the debt payments that the government must face.
Although the agreement with the IMF allows the central to buy even when the exchange rate has not touched The band’s floorhowever, the official decision is not to do so. At least for now. The priority is to allow the official dollar to continue down and accelerate the disinflation process.
But not everyone coincides with this strategy. From the Episode They indicated that “it would be prudent for the BCRA to take advantage of the current situation to Buy some dollars For more that the dollar is floating in the bands. “In that sense, he adds that” being a time of harvest settlement is when the BCRA generally has the opportunity to buy dollars for seasonality. Then, the liquidation is reduced and accumulated reserves will look more challenging. ”
Besides, The goal set with the IMF It implies accumulating USD 4,400 million until June 13, which is when the first review of the agreement will be carried out. By the end of the year, the BCRA should accumulate USD 8,903 million.
But for now you don’t see a rebound in sight. In July, in addition, there is a debt expiration of the order of the USD 4.4 billion, to which another one in November 1.6 billion is added. Both will negatively impact the level of net reserves, becoming much more challenging the commitment set to the fund.
Federico Furiasedirector of the BCRA, said that the purchase of dollars in the market is not the only mechanism to accumulate dollars. Other options could be the entry of currencies through the capital account that the central could acquire even when the exchange rate does not touch the band of the band. New loans from organizations are also expected and the announcement of a new Repo with international banks for USD 2,000 million.
Of course the main commitment is to return to financial markets and place debt, which would allow accumulating reserves. While the main scenario is not today, it is not ruled out that the treasure progresses with any issuance of Bonds in dollars At least in the local market, although it is not most likely in the short term.
Javier Milei yesterday emphasized that the country risk had drilled 700 points, making it clear that it is a priority of the government. An improvement of the bonds, with the consequent reduction of the country risk, would allow to recover access to volunteer debt markets. Argentina approaches, but there is still a way to go.
“The challenge of accumulating reservations is evident and, for the moment, the government puts it in the background. On the other hand, it is urgent accumulate reservations Because next year’s maturities are also great around overcoming US $ 15,000 million, ”continues the Eseade.
From the balancing consultant they also put the focus on the need to accumulate reservations. “The public sector does not want to buy reservations not to press the exchange rate in a free flotation scheme. However, breach of the reserve goal makes it difficult to leave the country risk, making more costs to achieve those dollars through financing with the private sector.”
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