2019 It was for the Venezuelan people one of the most difficult moments of the Economic Crisisone of the most acute in the modern history of the western hemisphere.
That year, the then president Donald Trump implemented a policy of greater pressure on the regime of Nicolás Maduro and imposed a series of oil sanctions and financial About the country, that were isolated from the global financial system.
Blackouts For weeks, Water supply, refinery paralysissuspension of public transport, School closure, layoffs massive, galloping inflation up to three digits and one severe currency shortage They are just some of the factors that characterized this period and that forced people to resort to the most creative survival strategies.
The recovery was long and difficult. The Chavista regime took four years In stabilizing its economy, ending hyperinflation and reversing one of the worst recessions of its modern history, to – in consequence – to be able to give some stability to its currency.
However, today, six years later and with Trump again in the presidency of the United States, the ghost of those days emerges more than ever.
Weeks ago, the Republican announced that, as he did in the past, he would act against the Venezuelan oil industry – one of the main sources of financing of the dictatorship, in 90 percent – and He revoked licenses to operate multiple international companies.
In doing so, the White House interrupted to the largest route of income in Venezuela and of much of the dollars circulating in the streets, due to the de facto dollarization under which you live.
Exactly, considering the numbers, PDVSA with Chevron and other firms inject some USD 2.4 billion in the official market in 2024 and sold around USD 600 million only in the first four months of 2025.
However, the absence of these sums in the Venezuelan economy would result in a Board of the currencywhich would lead to a Bolívar value drop and everything that this implies in people’s day to day.
But this is not the only adversity facing the regime. He oil price It has already fallen a 17% So far this year, following the escalation in a commercial war promoted by the United States, and it is expected that the Gross domestic product from Caracas a 2,5% In 2025, compared to 1.5% that the Venezuelan Observatory of Finance estimated only one month ago.
Even others such as the ecoanalitic local consultant are less optimistic and foresee a more acute fall, above 4 percent.
“The scenario that we all begin to see is a return to 2019 ″said Ángel Alvarado, economist and professor at the University of Pennsylvania, who warned that the signs -like the devaluationhe Price risethe Fall of consumption and the Public spending cut– They will begin to be seen gradually.
-The regime will then have a fundamental role when determining how much the effect of this scenario will feel.
Unlike the past, Miraflores seems to have abandoned the most radical policies such as Price and currency controlsalthough it maintains inspections and fines about the private sector.
Also, in April, Maduro approved the first Economic Emergency Decree in four years, which gives you the power to suspend taxes and exemptions, and authorize new benefits to investors, while appointed a New Board of Directors of the Central bankwhich took measures to compensate for the decrease in foreign exchange before the end of Chevron’s operations on May 27.
“The government is preparing for the cash flow crisis”said Luis Vicente León, president of Datanalysis.
However, the measures taken so far seem to satisfy Private sectorthat while looking for an opening of the economy, it is already preparing for the worst.
According to various entrepreneurs, reactivating past restrictions will only lead to a new hyperinflation, even above 162 percent.
“Change controls bring poverty, we have already lived. There must be reforms so that the economy is more agile”warned Adam Celis, president of Fedecamaras.
That is why, instead, they look for a scheme of lower bank restrictionsand Credit promotionthe Free currency circulation and one lower fiscal burden For companies, accompanied by a Improvement in public servicesthat facilitate your daily activity and the saves of the blackouts, the price discrepancy, the impossibility of facing the payment of salaries or completing their usual working days.
While all this will require a high public investment and a very active role by Chavismo – something unlikely given the current conditions – not everything is still lost.
León said that, unlike the past, this time, Maduro and his allies have strategies for Evade the sanctionscontinue selling your oil and still access those millions of dollars.
“The 2025 challenge is not equal to that of 2019 in terms of dimension. The government knows how to sell oil”even with the threats of the United States, he said.
(With Bloomberg information)
