The recent drop in oil prices has generated a worrying panorama for economies dependent on this resource, including Colombia, whose financial stability is closely linked to the income derived from crude oil exports.
As reported by AFP, The price of the barrel of Brent, International reference, decreased 1.35%, standing at $ 61.29, while the West Texas Intermediate (WTI), its US equivalent, fell 1.60%, reaching $ 58.29. This collapse is attributed to the expectations of an increase in production by OPEC+, as well as a decrease in global demand, especially in China.
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According to the analysis of Jay Hatfield, of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, the oil market faces significant pressures due to the decisions of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, as well as to global economic uncertainties. The situation is aggravated by the commercial policies implemented by the administration of Donald Trump, which have generated tensions in international trade and affected the energy demand. In this context, The crude has lost approximately 18% of its value so far from 2025, reaching minimum levels not seen in four years.
For Colombia, this situation represents a considerable challenge. Based on the most recent financial plan of the government, an average price of the Brent barrel was projected above $ 74 to guarantee the country’s fiscal stability. However, the difference of $ 13 per barrel compared to the current price puts public finances, especially considering that Ecopetrol, whose main shareholder is the State, is one of the main sources of income for the country. This situation occurs at a critical moment, marked by a decrease in tax revenues and an increase in public spending.
For its part, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expressed concern about Colombia’s fiscal sustainability, evaluating the possibility of restricting the country’s access to the flexible credit line that has been available since 2009. Although this line was only used in 2020 during the pandemic, its possible cancellation could limit the government’s ability to face future economic crises. Besides, The Autonomous Committee of the Fiscal Rule (CARF) pointed out the need for a budget cut of approximately $ 46 billion to comply with fiscal goals and maintain the confidence of international investors.
In the international arena, the OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, is considering a new increase in oil production, estimated at 400,000 barrels per day, According to delegates who participated in discussions prior to a scheduled videoconference to define the group’s policy. This decision follows an increase of 411,000 barrels per day in April, which widely exceeded the initial expectations. Although this measure seeks to discipline member countries that have exceeded their production quotas, it could also exert greater downward pressure on crude oil prices.
It is necessary to mention that the impact of this strategy not only affects oil -producing countries, but also shale companies in the United States, which warned about the difficulties in maintaining production in a low price environment. Even in Saudi Arabia, the fall in prices forced the government to reduce investments in key projects, such as the futuristic city of Neom, part of the economic transformation plans of the heir prince Mohammed Bin Salman. According to the IMF, the kingdom would need oil prices to exceed $ 90 per barrel to cover their public spending.
In this context, The prospects for the countries of the Middle East have also been reviewed down, reflecting the challenges faced by oil -dependent economies in an increasingly volatile market. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump publicly celebrated the reduction in gasoline prices, although the implications for the US energy industry and the global stability of the oil market remain uncertain.
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