The price of bread, biscuits and beer could be at risk of rising as a result of months of wet weather in the UK, a report has suggested.
Harvests of crops including wheat, barley and oats may fall by more than 17% this year compared to 2023.
The Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), which produced the analysis, said that if there is a shortfall in UK crops, food producers may have to import more from overseas, potentially increasing costs.
The UK has had one of the wettest winters on record and there has been a soggy start to spring in many parts of the country.
The wet weather has left many fields too wet to be planted with new crops.
The ECIU said that UK production of wheat, barley, oats and oilseed rape may drop by four million tonnes in 2024. It based its analysis on data from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) and yield figures from the Department for Environment, Food and & Rural Affairs.
Inflation – which measures the pace of price rises – has been easing, most recently due to slower price increases in bread, crumpets and chocolate biscuits, according to the Office for National Statistics.
Prices for bread and cereals rose by 0.2% between February and March, compared to a 2.2% increase in the same period last year.
However, Tom Lancaster, land analyst at ECIU, said: “This washout winter is playing havoc with farmers’ fields leading to soils so waterlogged they cannot be planted or too wet for tractors to apply fertilizers.
“This is likely to mean not only a financial hit for farmers, but higher imports as we look to plug the gap left by a shortfall in UK supply.”
He added: “There’s also a real risk that the price of bread, beer and biscuits could increase as the poor harvest may lead to higher costs.”
The UK Flour Millers trade association said it expected this summer’s wheat crop to be 40% lower than last year.
“The weather has just been awful right the way through from the autumn until now,” said Ollie Johnson, head of farming systems and agronomy at the AHDB.
He said that farmers normally plant wheat in both autumn and spring, but added: “This year both of those have been really, really challenging.”
