More than two years after the invasion of Ukraine, Russian gas continues to enter Europe. And although the European Union (EU) drastically reduced the amount of Russian gas it imports, the hydrocarbon continues to be a source of energy for European homes and companies and, as a consequence, a source of income for the Kremlin.
When the war began, the EU had to reduce Europe’s long-standing dependence on Russian gas. In 2021, 34% of EU gas came from Russia and was mainly headed to countries in Central and Eastern Europe.
In 2022, when Russia stopped shipping gas to Europe, European leaders feared a winter energy shortage, but these fears never came true, especially because the EU never sanctioned Russian gas: “It was never a sanction. “It was a voluntary and intelligent decision by countries to diversify supply and stop being blackmailed by Russia,” Benjamin Hilgenstock, from the Kiev School of Economics, told DW.
Russian liquefied natural gas replaced gas pipelines
According to EU data, the amount of Russian gas imported into the bloc via pipelines fell from 40% (2021) to around 8% (2023). However, if transportable liquefied natural gas (LNG) is included, the hydrocarbon of Russian origin reached 15%.
The EU reduced its dependence on Russian gas by increasing LNG imports from countries such as the United States and Qatar.
According to data platform Kpler, Russia is now the EU’s second largest LNG supplier. Russian LNG imports represented 16% of the total supply of that fuel to the EU in 2023, 40% more than in 2021.
Ban on Russian LNG
However, some of this LNG is not needed for the European market. From European ports it is re-exported to other countries, mainly in Asia: “Much of the Russian LNG that arrives in Europe is simply in ‘transit’. It has nothing to do with Europe’s supply. They are just European companies that make money by facilitating Russian LNG exports,” explains Hilgenstock.
Therefore, several EU countries, such as Sweden, Finland and the Baltic countries, are pushing for a complete ban on Russian LNG, which would require the agreement of all member states.
“Actually, we should basically ban Russian LNG. We don’t think it plays any significant role for European gas supplies, or it can be relatively easily substituted by LNG from other sources,” Hilgenstock said.
Gas pipelines still bring Russian gas to the EU
Russian gas also continues to reach the EU through gas pipelines. For example, gas pipelines through Ukraine supply Russian gas to Austria. Austrian state energy company OMV has a contract with Russia’s Gazprom until 2040.
In February, Austria confirmed that 98% of its gas imports in December 2023 came from Russia. The government says it wants to break the contract with Gazprom as soon as possible, but EU sanctions are necessary for that to happen legally.
Like Austria, Hungary has continued to import Russian gas via pipeline in large quantities. Hungary has also recently signed a gas deal with Turkey, but experts say this gas, via Turkstream, also comes from Russia.
For countries like Austria and Hungary, the possible end of their pipeline imports from Russia may ultimately be determined by Ukraine. kyiv insists that it will not renew the agreements it has with Gazprom for gas to circulate through its territory. That agreement expires at the end of 2024.
Is it time for the embargo?
The EU says it wants the bloc to be completely free of Russian gas by 2027, a goal Hilgenstock sees as increasingly realistic: “I think if this whole sordid affair has shown us anything, it is that we can relatively quickly diversify our gas supply.” and other energy sources, moving us away from Russia,” he said.
However, he believes that political conditions “are not particularly conducive” for a total gas embargo at present, especially gas pipelines. He points to the Hungarian presidency of the EU in the second half of 2024 as a possible obstacle. Budapest maintains closer ties with Moscow than most EU member states.
(ju/ers)
