Back last summer, two of the NBA’s most respected pundits penned analyzes of the NBA’s draft picture going forward. The articles, which both popped in August, didn’t get a lot of attention back then, but now, after the Phoenix Suns monumental collapse, they have new relevance… a lot of it.
Sam Quinn of CBS Sports looked at which teams had the best cache of traded first round picks, all 56 of them. The Brooklyn Nets, he wrote, had the best cache, highlighted by the Phoenix Suns first round picks in 2027 and 2029 and the Dallas Mavericks first in 2029 — all unprotected. He rated the Suns first in 2029 the single best trade piece and wrote that he believed that of the top six traded first round picks going forward, four of them were controlled by the Nets:
Eric Pincus of Bleacher Report went further a little later in August, analyzing every team’s full cache of picks: traded picks as well as their own. He even included second rounders! Pincus included protections as well as swapped rights in his analysis of it. He too ranked the Nets cache high: top five in what he called “draft power.” The only Pincus teams ranked higher are the Jazz at No. 4, the Knicks at No. 3, the Spurs at No. 2 and the Thunder at No. 1. Who’d he have at No. 30? The Phoenix Suns, of course.
Which brings us to Sunday night. The Phoenix Suns, with the highest payroll in the league, got swept in the first round by the Minnesota Timberwolves. Mat Ishbia’s dream of generational dominance lies empty and broken in the Arizona desert. Other than the T’Wolves, the Brooklyn Nets look like the big winner Sunday night. No matter how valuable the Nets 10 first rounders and 11 seconds looked Sunday they’ve have a much higher price tag Monday morning with prospect of a long Suns rebuild certainly possible.
To recap, the Nets received five Suns picks in the Kevin Durant trade — four unprotected firsts in 2023, 2025, 2027 and 2029 plus swap rights to the Suns first in 2028, also unprotected — in addition to Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson and Jae Crowder , who the Nets turned into two Bucks" rel="tag">Milwaukee Bucks second rounders. Since then, the Nets took Noah Clowney with the first of those picks and dealt the two Bucks seconds in salary dumps that provided them with $26.7 million in salary cap relief previously held down by Joe Harris and Patty Mills.
Brooklyn also got an unprotected Dallas Mavericks first rounder in 2029 from the Kyrie Irving trade along with two seconds, one of which was sent to Detroit in the Harris salary dump and still have the Philadelphia 76ers first rounder in 2027, protected 1-8. (It rolls over into a 2028 first with the same protections if not used in 2027.)
Other than sending a 76ers first from the James Harden trade to Utah for Royce O’Neale (and getting three Memphis Grizzlies seconds back from dealing O’Neale to the Suns at the deadline,) the Nets have held on to their picks. They will go into the 2024 — and presumably 2025 — off-seasons with seven tradeable first round picks and 11 seconds and that’s the plan: use the picks to make big deals, rather than spend time figuring out which 14 or 16 year old might be NBA-ready in 2027 or 2029.
Quinn in a recent Twitter exchange with NetsDaily said he believes that in terms of quality, the Nets have a better cache than Oklahoma City Thunder…
Yes, the Nets owe the Houston Rockets their own firsts in 2024 and 2026 as well as swaps in 2025 and 2027, but those are sunk costs at this point and the increasing value of Suns — and maybe the Mavs picks — should take away some of that sting.
What makes the Nets a winner is the long-term situation in Phoenix. No team ever went all-in as the Suns have, thumbing their nose at both the new CBA and convention. They’re beyond the second apron and face increasing sanctions on their ability to make future moves. They have no firsts and one second between 2025 and 2030, their books a mishmash of swaps and protections. They’re hard-capped and can’t use the MLE or BAE for what seems like forever. They can’t include cash in trades, and trade rules in general become enormously restrictive as Quinn wrote Monday.
The Suns dilemma is one of their own making. Despite having all that cash, they didn’t fill basic needs like employing a top-flight playmaker and a reliable big, forcing Bradley Beal and Kevin Durant into roles that didn’t take maximum advantage of their skills. Going forward, they’re banking on older players with injury histories. Kevin Durant had a great year individually, averaging 27.1 points and 6.6 rebounds over 75 games, even finishing sixth in minutes played. But he is 35, turning 36 in September and is still owed $105 million over the next two seasons. Can the Suns ownership expect him to match the numbers he put up this season at age 37, particularly those related to his durability? You can’t put it past KD to do it, but there’s a risk. Making things even more iffy, KD is eligible for an extension this summer. Will Ishbia offer him one? Will I want to stay in Phoenix?
And according to a report from Shams Charania, KD is unhappy.
Durant, among the best scorers in NBA history, was not always happy with how he was used. Sources briefed on the matter told The Athletic that Durant never felt comfortable with his role in Phoenix’s offense alongside Booker and Beal this season. Those sources said Durant had persistent issues with the offense, feeling that he was being relegated to the corner far too often and not having the proper designs to play to his strengths as the offense was built around pick-and-rolls.
On the other side of the ledger, the Suns are not happy with Bradley Beal who played in only 53 games, averaging 18.2 points and 5.0 assists. Again, Shams:
In Phoenix, Beal dealt with injuries to begin the season, playing in 53 games and never gaining consistency at the point guard position. The arrangement was never ideal. Booker ran the offense more before the All-Star break, Beal did so after. He neither seemed comfortable as the point guard, particularly when the opposing team pressured full-court and wore on their stamina.
Beal is owed $161 million over the next three years and has a rock solid no-trade clause. They can’t even waive and stretch him under the new CBA, according to Keith Smith of Spotrac. They’re basically stuck with him.
So what will the Suns do? And how would it affect the Nets? Word is that the Suns may soon fire Frank Vogel which seems to indicate that Ishbia would like to revisit his dream of him again next season. It won’t be easy and not just because they don’t have a lot of tradeable assets. Their hands are tied. The new CBA has other restrictions that will make any big moves difficult.
Furthermore, there’s a body of thought that Kevin Durant still has a wandering eye after switching teams three times from OKC to Golden State to Brooklyn to Phoenix and may want to make yet another move. His legacy remains front and center for him and he still has value. If the Suns have to trade him, they’re unlikely to get what they gave up for him in the Nets trade. And if that happened, would Devin Booker also ask out? Stephen A. Smith said Monday that he’s heard Booker wants to join the New York Knicks! Expect a lot more of that.
If any of those rumors became real, if Ishbia mounts a rebuilding campaign, it would be long, deep and painful… for Suns fans. For Nets fans, though, it would be ideal. Those picks, particularly the firsts in 2027 and 2029 and the swap in 2028, could become the stuff of a superstar trade, if not immediately, then starting in 2025 when Brooklyn would be free of the luxury tax restrictions have two firsts in the Draft, the Suns and their own, which may have to be swapped with the Rockets.
Maybe the Suns will figure out a way to remake their team next season without draconian measures but it seems unlikely. In the interim, Nets fans can simply wait and see, root for the home team and against the Suns. Indeed, the latter’s fate may be more important!
