Who is Allan Lichtman, the ‘Nostradamus’ of US presidential polls? What are his predictions for Biden vs Trump? – Firstpost

Allan Lichtman, dubbed the “Nostradamus of US presidential elections,” boasts an impressive track record, having accurately predicted the outcomes of nine out of the past ten US presidential elections. With his methodical approach and unique insights, Lichtman is now preparing for his latest challenge: forecasting the showdown between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in the upcoming US presidential election.

A seasoned history professor at American University (AU) in Washington, Allan Lichtman’s journey into the realm of election prediction began over four decades ago. In 1981, Lichtman, then a visiting scholar at the California Institute of Technology, forged an unlikely partnership with Vladimir Keilis-Borok, a renowned authority in earthquake prediction with a keen interest in American politics, reported Guardian.

Their collaboration led to the development of the famous “13 keys to the White House,” a groundbreaking method that analyzes presidential elections through the lens of stability versus upheaval. This method, combining patterns of historical stability with current political dynamics, has since become a cornerstone of election forecasting.

“I’d love to tell you I developed my system by ruining my eyes in the archives, by deep contemplation, but if I were to say that, to quote the late great Richard Nixon, that “would be wrong,” Lichtman told Guardian. “Like so many discoveries, it was kind of serendipitous.”

What are the 13 keys?

Lichtman and Keilis-Borok’s method hinges on 13 true/false questions, each serving as a litmus test for the incumbent party’s prospects. These keys range from the state of the economy to social unrest, from major policy changes to the charisma of the candidates. If six or more keys go against the incumbent party, it signals a change in power.

These are the 13 keys, as summarized by AU’s website:

1. party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.

2. Answer: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.

3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.

4. third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.

5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

7. Policy changes: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

9. scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

eleven. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves greater success in foreign or military affairs.

12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

White House takes notice

Their groundbreaking research caught the attention of the media, with Washington Post publishing an article headlined an “Odd couple discovers keys to the White House.” Subsequently, Lichtman’s predictions gained traction, culminating in his accurate forecast of Ronald Reagan’s re-election in 1984, despite prevailing economic challenges and low approval ratings.

His prowess in prognostication earned him a seat at the White House table, where he engaged with prominent officials, including then US Vice-President George HW Bush. Lichtman’s insights proved invaluable, offering a glimpse into the future of American politics.

In 1991, Lichtman published a book, “The Thirteen Keys to the Presidency_.”_

“Some of my keys were not just cut and dried and I kept telling them, it’s not subjectivity, it’s judgment. We’re dealing with human systems and historians make judgments all the time, and they’re not random judgments. “I define each key very carefully in my book and I have a record.”

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He added, “It took 15 to 20 years and the professional forecasting community totally turned around. They realized their big mathematical models didn’t work and the best models combined judgment with more cut-and-dried indicators. And suddenly the keys were the hottest thing in forecasting.”

Despite his successes, Lichtman faced skepticism from some quarters within the forecasting community. Critics challenged the subjectivity of his method, yet Lichtman remained steadfast, asserting that his approach was rooted in rigorous analysis and historical precedent.

A momentary blip: The 2000 US election

Lichtman’s otherwise impeccable record faced scrutiny following the contentious 2000 election, where he predicted a victory for Al Gore. Despite Gore winning the popular vote, Lichtman maintains that the outcome was marred by irregularities, citing disparities in ballot handling that disproportionately affected minority voters.

Speaking to Guardian, he said, “It was a stolen election. Based on the current votes, Al Gore should have won leaving, except for the discarding of ballots cast by Black voters who were 95% for Gore. I provided this in my report to the United States Commission on Civil Rights. One out of every nine to 10 ballots cast by a Black voter was thrown out, as opposed to one out of 50 cast by a white voter.”

“Most of those were not so-called hanging chads. They were over-votes because Black people were told punch in Gore and then write in Gore, just to be sure, and those ballots were all discarded. Political scientists have since looked at the election and proved I was right. “Al Gore, based on the intent of the voters, should have won by tens of thousands of votes.”

He added, “I contend I was right about 2000 or at a minimum there was no right prediction. You could argue either way. I contend – and a lot of people agree with me – that I’m 10 out of 10. But even if you say I’m nine out of 10, that’s not bad.”

Trump’s unlikely 2016 triumph

In 2016, Lichtman made headlines once again with his prediction of Donald Trump’s victory, defying conventional wisdom and poll projections. His analysis highlighted the importance of key factors such as party stability, candidate charisma, and prevailing social and economic conditions.

Taking the readers through the process, Lichtman said, “The critical sixth key was the contest key: Bernie Sanders’s contest against Clinton. It was an open seat so you lost the incumbency key. The Democrats had done poorly in 2014 so you lost that key. There was no big domestic compliance following the Affordable Care Act in the previous term, and no big foreign policy splashy success following the killing of Bin Laden in the first term, so there were just enough keys. “It was not an easy call.”

After the election, Lichtman received a copy of the Washington Post interview in which he made the prediction, reported Guardian. On it was written in a Sharpie pen: “Congratulations, professor. Good call. “Donald J Trump.” But in the same call, Lichtman had also prophesied – again accurately – that Trump would one day be impeached.

He was right about 2020, too, as Trump struggled to handle the coronavirus pandemic. “The pandemic is what did him in. He congratulated me for predicting him but he didn’t understand the keys. The message of the keys is it’s governance not campaigning that counts and instead of dealing substantively with the pandemic, as we know, he thought he could talk his way out of it and that sank him.”

The 2024 election – Biden or Trump?

As the political landscape evolves, Lichtman remains undeterred, offering insights into the upcoming election cycle. With a keen eye on historical precedent and current trends, he evaluates the prospects for Joe Biden’s re-election bid, highlighting key indicators that could shape the outcome.

According to Guardian, he is anticipated to announce his prediction for the 2024 US presidential election in early August. I have highlighted that Biden currently holds the advantage of the incumbency key and, having decisively defeated nominal opponents in the Democratic primary, also possesses the contest key.

“That’s two keys off the top. That means six more keys would have to fail to predict his defeat. “A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose.”

Lichtman disregards the significance of running mate selections and has remained steady in his predictions, regardless of any last-minute surprises that may arise in October. However, he acknowledges that no predictive model is entirely impervious to unforeseen events.

Addressing the ongoing developments, including the commencement of Trump’s criminal trial in New York related to a hush-money payment, Lichtman told Guardian, “Keys are based on history. They’re very robust because they go all the way back retrospectively to 1860 and prospectively to 1984, so they cover enormous changes in our economy, our society, our demography, our politics.

“But it’s always possible there could be a cataclysmic enough event outside the scope of the keys that could affect the election and here we do have, for the first time, not just a former president but a major party candidate sitting in a trial and who knows if he’s convicted – and there’s a good chance he will be – how that might scramble things.”

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Reflecting on a scenario where his prediction fails, Lichtman said, “It’s nerve-racking because there are a lot of people who’d love to see me fail. I’m human. It doesn’t mean my system’s wrong. “Nothing is perfect in the human world.”

While Lichtman’s method provides a robust framework for election prediction, he acknowledges the inherent unpredictability of politics. As unforeseen events unfold, such as legal challenges or societal uprisings, the landscape may shift, introducing new variables into the “equation”.

With inputs from agencies