Good news if he, or his replacement, can deliver it.
While there is some hope buried in the forward estimates, if we have learned anything from recent budgets, the forecasts are rarely as good as promised.
Particularly if the forecasts are based on a best-case-scenario position, like the rivers of gold – extra GST money – continuing to flow at the same level from Canberra and inflation cooling, as this budget hopes.
Hidden behind the $400 cash handout for parents are cuts to mental health, delays to infrastructure projects and services and programs that would have helped Victorians suffering from cost-of-living pressures.
The government won’t quite admit to it, but they have reneged on several election promises – including more government-funded childcare and kindergarten hours, two new hospital towers near the site of the future Arden Metro station in North Melbourne, and the Airport Rail Link.
Labor insists it remains “committed” to these projects, but voters hoping to jump on a train to get a Jetstar flight out of Tulla or send their children to a suburban government-owned childcare center by the end of this decade might not agree.
The key will be whether the government can present this more “gradual” approach to its promises as a necessary trade-off to fix the budget. And that will depend on whether the burden we are being asked to bear actually results in a better long-term economic outlook for the state.
According to the budget, that “better” outlook is the tiniest reduction in net debt as a proportion of the state’s economy by 2028.
A major obstacle is the government’s pitch that this is a budget focused on families.
This claim will dissolve quicker than an Arrowroot bikkie dunked in tea unless Labor can convince mums and dads its one-off $400 payment is worth more to their families than school upgrades or more hours of publicly funded pre-school.
This is a budget peppered with delays and cuts, but not in the areas where it could make a notable impact to the budget, such as the Suburban Rail Loop, which has an estimated price tag of more than $100 billion once complete.
In that sense, it is risk-averse. But it still acknowledges the deep financial hole Victoria is in and makes some attempt to rebuild financial credibility after years of big spending.
