It’s been a roller coaster for Nuggets and the Timberwolves in the first four games of the Western Conference Semifinals. The Wolves won the first two games convincingly in Denver before losing the next two at home in exactly the opposite fashion.
The series now moves to Denver in a decisive fifth game. The Nuggets are favorites over the Timberwolves, but this is far from over. They are two great teams, and either of them could advance to the next round.
We analyze where the advantages are, and who should ultimately prevail.
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Why the Nuggets should be the favorites
Jamal Murray is back
Murray averaged just 12.5 points in the first two games of this series, largely because he appeared to be battling a calf injury.
With a few days of rest between games 2 and 3, Murray has been rejuvenated. He has averaged 21.5 points on 50% shooting from the field and 41.7% shooting from 3-point range in Denver’s two wins.
His drives to the rim have improved a lot and he is avoiding blocks better. That has made the two-man game between him and Nikola Jokic much more effective.
Even when Minnesota has known what was coming, it has been unable to stop it.
Nikola Jokic already has the solution for Minnesota’s defense
The Timberwolves came into the series with an innovative strategy on how to stop that two-man game. Instead of having Jokic’s man, Karl-Anthony Towns, help on blocks, they had him stay completely on Jokic. Rudy Gobert, who was on Aaron Gordon, would instead be the assistant.
A small adjustment has made that strategy ineffective. The Nuggets have been using ram blocks to increase the space between Jokic and Towns, forcing more help responsibility on Towns.
Jokic has also discovered some things for himself. He’s too smart to use the same cover on him over and over again. The Wolves tried to mix things up late in the fourth quarter of Game 4, and Jokic outplayed every one of his tactics.
After some unusual struggles early in this series, Jokic has returned to his consistency. He has averaged 29.5 points, 10.5 rebounds and 8 assists in the last two wins.
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Aaron Gordon has punished Rudy Gobert
Part of the Wolves’ defensive success was allowing Gobert to get off Aaron Gordon and help Murray and Jokic. Gordon has only made 32.3% of his 3-point attempts in his entire career, so that strategy looked good on paper.
In practice, Gordon has made it unsustainable. He has made 66.7% of his three-pointers and scored 17.3 points per game, sometimes creating his own attack and making difficult plays.
The Nuggets have also done an excellent job of shifting Gobert to other players like Jokic, Murray and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, which has taken Gobert out of his comfort zone and, at times, out of a good helping position. They have limited the stifling defensive impact he had in the Wolves’ Game 1 win.
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Why the Timberwolves should be the favorites
Denver still has no way to stop Anthony Edwards
Edwards has played at an incredible level throughout the series, averaging 33.3 points per game. He had 44 in the Game 4 loss, even though the Nuggets put their two best defenders, Caldwell-Pope and Gordon, on him. Denver has done everything it can to get other players to beat him, but Edwards has managed to force his way to the rim or hit extremely difficult 3-pointers.
Edwards has been the best player in this series. That usually makes the difference when teams are evenly matched, as seems to be the case.
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The Timberwolves interiors couldn’t play worse
Game 4 was brutal for Towns and Gobert. KAT showed his worst habits, committing bad fouls and getting lost in defense. He was substituted at times in the final stretch due to the https://twitter.com/StephNoh/status/1789842909912604949 in Minnesota’s defensive coverage.
As bad as Towns was on defense, Gobert was worse on offense. His drop passes were atrocious, and he had some very clumsy offensive possessions and missed four free throws in nine attempts.
Despite that poor play, the Wolves only lost Game 4 by eight points. They will both play better for the rest of the series, because it is impossible to play worse.
Nuggets vs. Prediction Timberwolves
When they say the Playoffs are about adjustments, this series is a great example of why. The Wolves came out with a great way to guard Jokic and Murray, which the Nuggets countered. Now is the time for Minnesota to find more answers.
That is still possible. The Timberwolves committed https://twitter.com/StephNoh/status/1789842190560063781 that were the difference. Talent-wise, they have enough to win. Just a week ago they had Murray so frustrated that he was throwing objects on the ground.
Minnesota is going to have to play perfectly to win two of the next three with two of the remaining games in Denver. It seems like too high a bar to clear. I’m sticking with my original prediction from before this series started.
Prediction: Denver Nuggets 4-3
