It has been a trial with embarrassing moments for trumplike when Stormy Daniels He took great pleasure in detailing the alleged sexual encounter between the two.
It has been a trial with dangerous moments for Trump, as when his former lawyer Michael Cohen broke down with supposed precision the payments to the former porn actress, who was intended keep silent.
And it has been a trial with tense moments for Trump, as in the numerous times that the judge has admonishedeven going so far as to warn him that he could go directly to the dungeon.
But despite all this, absolutely no one can honestly predict what the effect on the jury.
There are still missing Last conclusionsbut it is very likely that they will not alter the inclination of the twelve New Yorkers on whom the verdict depends.
In reality it does not depend on the twelve, but on each one of them in particular, because it is necessary that there be unanimity to condemn him and, therefore, if only one of them does not do so, Trump will not be formally accused and the trial may have to be held again or come to nothing.
But, furthermore, it is entirely possible that a majority of the jury directly understands that Trump is not guilty. Simply, it is not possible to predict.
Likewise, there is no way to predict the effect of the trial on the Trump’s political future. It is obvious that the vast majority of Americans have an idea about the former president that does not depend on the trial. It is also reasonable to think that there is a small minority that could base their vote on what the jury decides.
But it is a small percentage and, furthermore, between now and November numerous circumstances will arise with the capacity to once again influence that small minority.
Trump will not go to jail
In short, the trial does not seem to be so politically dangerous for Trump as had been implied so many times. And, of course, whatever happens, the former president will not go to jail.
If he is convicted, he will be able to appeal and no judge will put him behind bars while his appeal is processed and he makes his election campaign.
Also, again: nowhere is it written that Trump is going to lose. That there is no unanimity in the jury or, even more, that he is declared innocent are completely plausible options.
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