“We will tear apart anyone who tries to separate Taiwan from China”

The Chinese Defense Minister expressed himself with unusual crudeness this Sunday in Singapore, at the most important security forum in Asia: “We will tear apart anyone who tries to separate Taiwan from China.” Within the framework of the Shangri-La Dialogue, Admiral Dong Jun has also referred to the South China Sea, the second focus of tension: “We will not allow any country to unleash a war, hot or cold, in East Asia.”

Before reviewing Beijing’s red lines, within the same forum, Dong met last Friday with his American counterpart, Lloyd Austin, for seventy-five minutes. This is the first military face-to-face of this level between both superpowers since 2022. The meeting has been described as “positive, pragmatic and constructive” by Beijing, which speaks of “stabilization of relations, after a decline ”.

Austin, for his part, has highlighted the importance of keeping communication channels open. “If they call me I will pick up the phone and I hope they do too.” In his speech on Saturday, the US Secretary of Defense said that his government is against “punishments,” in a thinly veiled allusion to the military maneuvers to siege Taiwan by the People’s Liberation Army. , One week before.

The reply to Austin came three hours later, at a press conference called for this purpose at the same Shangri-La hotel by another Chinese general, Jing Jianfeng: “Taiwan independence means war.” In the opinion of this and other officials of the People’s Liberation Army, the Pentagon must corroborate with actions the appeasing statements of the US president. To do so, it should demonstrate “that it is not seeking a regime change in China, nor a new Cold War. “, nor revitalize alliances directed against China, nor promote the independence of Taiwan, nor any other military conflict with China.”

Although the Singapore forum is organized by a British think tank and gives voice very predominantly to Western points of view – so much so that the Ukrainian Volodymyr Zelensky has traveled to this edition – China usually sends its Defense Minister since 2011. When the Beijing delegation believes it is losing the media battle in English, it calls its own press conferences in Mandarin, in a city-state where just over half of the population is fluent in this language.

This year’s event has had the added morbidity that the previous Chinese Minister of Defense, Li Shangfu, disappeared from the scene shortly after his participation in the 2023 edition. His successor – after months of interregnum – has stressed that the sea of South China has been the busiest point of international trade for decades, without any obstacles for any cargo ship, and then questions about the American “fixation” on defending a freedom of navigation that they present under threat.

Filipino Discord

To their regret, at least one Southeast Asian country, the Philippines, shares this concern. So much so that President Ferdinand Marcos, son of the dictator of the same name, has returned to the United States military bases in Philippine territory from which they had been expelled by the democratic mobilizations of the 1980s. He has also multiplied joint maneuvers. Last April, according to Beijing, they allowed the Pentagon to install medium-range missiles in the north of the archipelago.

For all these reasons, Beijing has asked Marcos if he believes in the centrality of ASEAN (the association of ten Southeast Asian countries) or in the leadership of the Seventh Fleet. An issue that Marcos’ predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, alludes to in an increasingly frequent and less diplomatic manner, to the point of being on the verge of sobbing, a few months ago, when referring to the degradation of relations with the Republic Popular of China. “The Philippines is in the hands of a drug addict, a cocaine addict, that son of a bitch,” he said this year in the most street-like Tagalog. The paradox is that his vice president is his own daughter, Sara Duterte, who is also beginning to distance herself from Marcos, with a view to his own presidential ambitions.

It should be noted, in any case, that the arbitration court in The Hague ruled in favor of Manila, during the last decade, in the dispute regarding an insignificant reef, where a Philippine warship is stranded. This is a storm in a teapot, which only with a lot of effort can become a casus belli, but in any case, China has not respected the verdict.

China opposes an “Asian NATO”

In Singapore, on the other hand, China has denounced the alleged plans of the United States, the most populous country in America, to project its power in Asia as it does in Europe through NATO. This “Asian NATO” would consist of an expansion of the AUKUS group, currently made up of Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States, upon invitation to Canada, New Zealand, Japan and South Korea. All this taking advantage of the correlation of right-wing leaders in these last three countries.

Something that worries the People’s Republic of China, always reluctant to any military alliance. But that doesn’t mean that everything goes smoothly for Washington. In South Korea, less than two months ago, the opposition – more favorable to exploring reunification with North Korea and less given to joint maneuvers with Japan and the US – achieved a comfortable majority in Parliament. Meanwhile, in Taiwan, the sovereigntists lost their majority in the Legislative Yuan, which has already begun to put into practice its promise to closely supervise the new president Lai Ching-te. Beijing considers Lai – also known as William Lai – an undeclared secessionist and “a danger.” Two weeks ago he reacted virulently to his inauguration, in which he referred to the other side of the strait as “China,” implying that Taiwan – legally, the Republic of China – is not.

If the People’s Liberation Army responded with military blockade exercises on the island that had not been seen in many years, its officers have warned this weekend in Singapore that there will be more. Likewise, on the commercial level, Beijing has just suspended the tariff exemption that benefited 134 products made in Taiwan (out of a total of more than five hundred). The communist government considers that Taipei has not done its part and maintains tariffs on thousands of continental products. In reality, it is a gradual political retaliation, from which they do not even hide.

Beijing believes that, in practice, Washington has stopped honoring its acceptance of the “one China” policy, in force since the 1970s, with intensive rearmament of Taipei and the promotion of increasingly uninhibitedly close political figures. to their interests and away from the rest of China. In fact, current President Lai’s grandchildren have US passports, as did his vice president, Hsiao Bhi-kim, until ten years ago, when she had to give it up to become a senior official and, later, “ambassador.” ” unofficial in Washington.

Sino-Arab Summit in Beijing

Unlike what was the norm for three decades, the United States now has more trouble than China building alliances in parts of Asia and even beyond. The belligerence in Ukraine and, above all, the passivity in Palestine, have increased the unrest of several state actors. Meanwhile, Beijing hosted its tenth Sino-Arab summit of foreign ministers this week, with the presence of several heads of state or government, such as Marshal Al Sisi of Egypt, the emir of Abu Dhabi, Mohamed bin Zayed, or the President of Tunisia, Kais Saied. Earlier this week it was Teodoro Obiang Nguema, petro-dictator of the former Spanish colony of Equatorial Guinea, who paid homage to President Xi Jinping.

China will increase its defense budget by more than 7% this year. Even so, it remains below 1.3% of GDP, very far from the 3.5% of the US and even the 2% that NATO countries have set as a minimum objective. With the rest, the Chinese state does things like landing on the far side of the Moon, this week for the second time, with the Chang’e-6 probe.