The latest study by the Center for Sociological Research (CIS), this Monday, puts the finishing touch, barring any surprise, to the last batch of polls for the European elections next Sunday, June 9. The organization that directs Jose Felix Tezanos attributes the victory to the PSOE of Teresa Ribera with between 31.6 – 33.2 points. Below, and in second position, is the PP and its candidate Dolors Montserrat, with between 28.3 – 30.5%. There are 3 points of difference between the lowest attribution of both and the highest.
The third place would be assumed Vox (9.9 – 11.0%), followed by Add (5.4 – 7.1%). Can it is half of the magentas (3.6 – 3.9%). The latest average of private surveys prepared by The Independent It grants victory to the popular party, and leaves Ribera, with 20, three seats behind Montserrat.
The surprise of the Europeansaccording to the CIS, it would be The Party is Over, the group of voters led by far-right agitator and activist Alvise Pérez. The average of polls gives it an average of 2.5 points. The CIS doubles the bet with a range of between 4.9 – 5.7%. More than the purple ones of Irene Montero and even the three-way alliance between ERC, EH Bildu and BNG, Ahora Repúblicas (3.7 – 4.1%).
The Tezanos study, which once again detaches itself from the rest of the polls in a new electoral call, increasing the Socialists’ support by approximately one to three points and lowering the PP’s support by between two and four, leaves Together (1.5 – 1.6%) and CEUS (1.0 – 1.3%) on the verge of being left out of the European Parliament. Ciudadanos, with a similar estimate between 0.7 – 1.2%, would hardly be able to hold on with one MEP of the eight it has had in the legislature.
As the entity usually does, in its edition of surveys prior to the closing of the legal period for official publications as stated in the electoral law, it does not offer seats. Only percentages. Yes, he provided them prior to the start of the electoral campaign. And if you take it into account, there is widespread exponential growth. No specific explanation is provided for this. Nor is it a consequence of changes in abstention or among those who are undecided.
If you look at the direct data you can see where its potential base comes from: 5% of the PP, 6.2% of Ciudadanos and 18.2% of Vox. Almost two out of every ten voters in the case of those from Santiago Abascal and Jorge Buxadé. Alvise’s potential voter is confirmed to be conservative. Especially among the most extremist sectors. But, on the other hand, he moves well among the young public, the abstentionists and among the dissatisfied. He gets 3.9% and 4.5% of those who voted blank and null. 8% of those who did not vote, which represents a million ballots in their favor. And one in ten new voters will support it (11.2%).
