Scientists like Professor Stefan Rahmstorf, Head of Earth System Analysis at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Researchhave put the scientific community and European governments on alert about a possible drastic climate change on the continent.
In fact, a study of the University of Copenhagen and the Niels Bohr Institute in Norwaypublished in the scientific journal Nature Communications, warns about the possible collapse of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)) in the next decade, which could trigger a new ice age in much of Europe.
What is AMOC?
The AMOC is a vital component of the global climate system. To understand it easily, this works like a greatconveyer beltmoving warm water from the tropics toward the North Atlantic, where it cools, becomes denser, and sinks to return south into the deep ocean.
This process, according to ‘El Independiente’, helps balance temperatures and climate in Europe and other regions of the North Atlantic, but also in warm areas of the planet. Besides, oxygenates the seabedwhich allows life to exist in the depths.
While the AMOC plays a regulatory role, rising global temperatures and melting glaciers, particularly in Greenland, are introducing large volumes of fresh water in the North Atlantic. But what is the problem? The saltier the water, the denser it is.. As glaciers melt, fresh water interferes with both elements, slowing or even stopping the AMOC process from sinking.
A collapse that seems imminent
Professor Stefan Rahmstorf points out that there is a35% to 45% chance AMOC will collapse in 2030s. This situation could lead to a severe cooling in Europe, something similar to the period between the 14th and 19th centuries and known as the Little Ice Age. The waters in the North Atlantic are not cooling enough and cannot sink, putting all this gear at risk.
The implications of such a change would be extreme. A freeze of this magnitude would not only affect the climate, but also agriculture, water supply, infrastructure and the overall economy. It is estimated that, in general terms, there would be a drop in temperatures of 3ºC per decadewhich would turn Europe into an “uninhabitable” place.
Furthermore, cities that are not used to winter conditions would have to adapt their infrastructure to deal with snow and ice, since, as indicated Antonio Turiel, scientific researcher at the Institute of Marine Sciences of the CSIC“from Montpellier upwards all of Europe would be buried under snow.”
However, the question before us is whether there is any way to avoid this collapse, but everything seems to indicate that it is imminent. The study by the Niels Bohr Institute at the University of Copenhagen reinforces these concerns. His research uses early warning signs based on increasing variance and autocorrelation to predict critical changes in AMOC. The data indicates that The AMOC could collapse between 2025 and 2095 if current emissions and global warming trends continue.
Some scientists suggest that there is still not enough evidence about this event. For example, him Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)in its latest report indicated that it did not foresee abrupt changes in the circulation of the AMOC current.
Precedents in history
The study recalls the bimodal nature of the AMOC, similar to the events of Dansgaard-Oeschgerabrupt climatic changes that occurred during the last glacial period, 25,000 years ago. Furthermore, scientists point out that the AMOC has collapsed before, such as during the Young Dryas 13,000 years ago. During this phenomenon, Europe faced extreme snowfall and winters and had to wait 1,200 years for the current to reactivate.
More recent events have also taken place such as those of Henry. According to Stefan Rahmstorf, huge masses of ice slid out to sea and drifted across the Atlantic, leaving traces of ice on the ocean floor that then melted, disrupting the AMOC.
Heinrich’s events had important global climate repercussions, even far from the Atlantic, since affected the tropical rain belts which result from the upward movement of hot air over the “thermal equator”.
The possible collapse of the AMOC and the consequent glaciation in Europe represents a significant threat that requires immediate attention and action. Mitigating climate change and adapting to its effects will be crucial to ensuring a sustainable and liveable future for the European continent and the entire world.
