As NATO celebrated its 75th anniversary this month, uncertainty has emerged about the alliance’s direction toward the Arctic region.
Sweden’s recent accession means that seven of the world’s eight Arctic nations are now under NATO’s security umbrella, with Russia being the exception. Although some analysts see the addition of Sweden and Finland as an opportunity for NATO to increase its influence and deter Russia, the alliance should avoid seeking further confrontation with that country.
The entry of Sweden and Finland into NATO undoubtedly impacts the alliance’s influence in the Arctic. In March, more than 20,000 NATO troops from 13 countries, including Finland, Sweden and the United States, participated in the final leg of the Nordic Response 2024 exercise in Norway. In addition, more than 50 ships and more than 100 aircraft participated. In total, the Nordic Response 2024 will involve more than 90,000 troops from all 32 NATO allies.
Why is the Arctic so important?
During the Cold War, the Arctic was a key border between NATO and the Soviet Union. In recent decades, Russia has revitalized its Soviet-era Arctic bases, outnumbering NATO’s by about a third. It has also invested in projects and increased its military presence in the Arctic, taking advantage of a crucial shipping route in the north. However, Russian military efforts in the Arctic have been primarily defensive, concentrating on the Kola Peninsula.
Despite scaremongering about Russian “militarization” of the Arctic, Russia’s inability to threaten a conventional land military incursion into European Arctic territory suggests concerns are overblown. Additionally, the Russian icebreaker fleet is primarily involved in escorting commercial shipping and search and rescue missions.
Although NATO has superior military capabilities, it must avoid increasing the militarization of the Arctic. Instead, it should work through diplomatic channels such as the Arctic Council to reduce tensions and avoid crises. Despite the current challenges in relations between Russia and NATO, it is crucial to keep communication channels open to ensure security in the Arctic region.
Source: Responsible Statecraft
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