What would the country be like if Nicolás Maduro or Edmundo Gónzalez wins?

In Colombia alone there are 2,875,743 Venezuelans, according to data from the Interagency Coordination Platform for Refugees and Migrants of Venezuela. Hence, all eyes are on their evolution.

At the moment, there are three possible scenarios: that Chavismo wins the elections, that the opposition wins or, a third option, that the elections are suspended..

“If there are elections it is because there is a negotiation,” said an opposition source close to the dialogue processes. And this has to do with an important reason and that is the low popularity of Chavismo compared to the opposition candidate who has the support of María Corina Machado, the most dangerous adversary for the president and candidate Nicolás Maduro.

(Also read: Venezuela: Edmundo González would beat Nicolás Maduro by 21 points in the presidential elections, according to a survey)

According to Félix Seijas, director of the Delphos Institute, specialized in opinion studies, the opposition vote reaches 50 percent at this time, which would be for Edmundo González, the 74-year-old diplomat registered by the Democratic Unity Roundtable.

Besides, Nicolás Maduro has 20 percent voting intention, which by conquering the so-called “soft Chavismo”, could rise to 30 percent, but with a lot of effort, explains Seijas.

In this figure, it is striking that Maduro has been increasing his popularity, which went from being between 10 and 15 percent, to today standing at 20 percent.

Even, according to several surveys, during the sensation of economic recovery between 2022 and 2023, the president’s popularity reached 25 percent, and this is linked, Seijas assures, to the fact that the main driving force for Venezuelans is to have economic security and There is less interest in issues associated with democracy and freedom.

However, these numbers are not enough for Maduro to be re-elected. “If there is an election, it is because there was negotiation,” a source linked to the dialogues between the Government and the opposition repeats to EL TIEMPO.

This means that “Maduro’s departure would be negotiated, giving him guarantees,” he insisted.

Both the opposition and Chavismo have moderated their speeches. Less insults from both sides but that doesn’t guarantee anything.

Chavismo is not going to dare to go to an election in which it loses. Two possible scenarios would be the suspension of the elections and, on the other, the disqualification of the Democratic Unity Table (MUD) card, forcing the opposition to run again to maintain unity.

In that case, they would have to rally around a new candidate who is registered or not participate. Nothing is clear yet.

For the analyst and political scientist, Carlos Zambrano, One strategy that Maduro could use to guarantee his victory is to weaken the MUD and have the votes divided among the nine registered candidates who claim to be from the opposition.

“That could divide almost the 85 percent rejection that the government has, creating the conditions for the PSUV with an electoral ceiling close to 5,000,000 votes.”

If Maduro wins, “a scenario of economic uncertainty is to be expected but that due to the international demand for crude oil could be overshadowed and thus see a slight improvement in the economy with reintegration of the Venezuelan market,” says Zambrano.

For the analyst, this would be accompanied by months of political instability, especially depending on how the opposition handles it.

If what the opinion polls predict comes true, The victory of Edmundo González Urrutia would be imminent. However, the outlook before assuming power on January 10, 2025 is considerably fragile.

“This implies a level of political negotiation that allows stability during the first year of management in the face of a Maduro regime that controls the rest of the public powers and with the possibility of making considerable reforms before taking office to keep the new administration tied up. ”explains Zambrano.

But it would also be a blow for Venezuelans, who, although they want change, would be applying economic measures – just to name that aspect – that would be harsh and which “must be taken with great caution, since 15 days of government will not pass when the Madurismo is calling for mobilizations against power.”

If the opposition wins, a difficult and complex transition process would come, not only in the country but in the international arena.

At least that’s what political scientist Daniel Arias believes. “One of the most delicate problems of a political transition in Venezuela, which no one wants to discuss publicly, is its role in international relations.”

(Also read: Venezuela lived a dark decade for human rights under the mandate of Nicolás Maduro, according to a report)

Arias adds that it even has to be discussed from the daily oil ship that leaves for Cuba, to the payment of debts contracted with the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China, in addition to the list of organizations of all kinds, public figures and political activists living abroad, financially assisted from Caracas, which could be a disaster for many political parties in other countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, Africa, Asia and Europe.