Humanity is facing an unprecedented demographic change, marked by a drop in Cup of fertility which could have significant implications on the economic growthhe geopolitical balance and the social structure of the nations.
This phenomenon, which affects both developed countries like in developmentit could mean that the world population is on track to decline for the first time in modern history. Or as he warns Jesus Fernandez-Villaverdeeconomist specialized in demography of the University of Pennsylvania“demographic winter is coming”.
In accordance with The Wall Street Journal (WSJ)among high-income nations, the rate of fertility fell below the replacement level, a trend that was accentuated during the pandemic. Developing countries also recorded declines, such as India, which surpassed China as the most populous country in the world, despite the fact that its birth rate is already below replacement level.
This situation has caused government leaders around the world to view demographic decline as a national emergency, concerned about shrinking workforces, slowing economic growth and underfunded pension systems.
The decrease of the population carries less weight in the global arena, generating challenges to powers such as USA, China and Russia on its status and long-term sustainability. In fact, some demographers anticipate that the world population could begin to decline within four decades, a rare phenomenon in history.
The overall fertility rate was located for the first time in human history below the replacement rate, which keeps the population stable over time. These data, provided by recent studies collected by the WSJ, suggest that the number of births reported in national registries often turns out to be 10% to 20% lower than projections made by United Nations.
In accordance with Jesus Fernandez-Villaverdewhich complemented the projections of United Nations with real data until 2023, the overall fertility rate was reduced to, between 2.1 and 2.2 last year, a fact that took demographers and population economists by surprise.
The decrease in the rate of fertility It is not limited to a specific country, but is a global phenomenon. For example, China reported 9 million births last year, 16% less than projected by the UN, while the United States saw 3.59 million births, 4% less than expected.
This trend was also observed in countries such as Egypt, with 17% fewer births, and Kenya, with 18% fewer in 2022. “It is estimated that fertility overall fell to between 2.1 and 2.2 last year,” said Fernández-Villaverde.
The impact of this decrease in fertility rate It is vast and carries profound implications for the global demographic future. In 2017, United Nations projected that the world populationwhich was then 7.6 billion, would continue to grow until reaching 11.2 billion in the year 2100.
However, more recent revisions have adjusted these figures downwards, now anticipating a peak of population 10.4 billion in the 2080s, according to the UNand the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington It even anticipates that this peak will reach around the year 2061 with only 9.5 billion before beginning to decline.
In USA, the drop has been particularly surprising. The total fertility rate down to 1.62 last year, according to provisional government figures, the lowest recorded to date. If the fertility would have stayed close 2.1where it was in 2007, USA would have accommodated approximately 10.6 million babies more since then, according to Kenneth Johnsonsenior demographer at the University of New Hampshire.
Experts point to a sustained decline in fertility rates, considering this phenomenon as part of a “second demographic transition.” This change is characterized by a societal reorientation toward individualism, with less emphasis on marriage and parenthood, and greater acceptance toward having fewer or no children.
Researchers from the University of Maryland, in a study published in 2021, investigated possible explanations for this continued decline, without finding a definitive answer in factors such as parental abortion notification laws, unemployment, availability of Medicaid, costs housing, contraceptive use, religiosity, child care costs, and student debt.
Melissa Kearneyof the University of Marylandsuggests that parental preferences and perceptions about restrictions have changed, even though raising children is no more expensive than before. People now prefer to invest time in developing their careers, in leisure and in relationships outside the home.which frequently presents itself as a conflict with parenting.
Furthermore, data on time use reveal that both mothers as fathersespecially those with a high level of education, spend more time with their children than in the pastwhich Kearney describe how “The intensity of parenthood is a restriction”.
The fertility Global consumption is declining, even in places where numbers historically remained high, such as India and regions of sub-Saharan Africa. This trend reflects a profound change in family decisions and in the perception of quality of life, according to experts.
Richard Jackson, president of the Global Institute on Aging, emphasizes that urbanization and the internet have played crucial roles in exposing even women in traditionally male-dominated communities to models of society where smaller families and better quality of life prevail. “People are connected to global culture,” he says.
Jose Rimónprofessor of public health at Johns Hopkins Universityattributes this change to the initiatives advanced by national leaders, which, predicts, will accelerate the decline of the fertility faster than projections UN they anticipated.
This phenomenon of reduction of fertility rate begins a cycle that, once established, redefines social and cultural norms about the family, causing societies to readjust their perception of the ideal number of children. “When you see your colleagues, friends and neighbors having fewer children, it changes the entire social climate,” comment jackson.
The sustained decrease in birth rates at a global level, exacerbated by the pandemic COVID-19is putting increasing economic pressure on health and pension systems, with an impact particularly alarming in the future of the youth workforce and financing care for an aging population.
One of the solutions traditionally proposed in developed countries is the increase in immigration. However, this proposal encounters significant obstacles, as more nations face similar population difficulties, turning immigration into a zero-sum game.
Furthermore, although host countries have historically sought to attract skilled migrants through legal channels, recent migration flows have been predominantly composed of unskilled migrants, often arriving illegally and seeking asylum.
The effects of a sustained decline in the birth rate are already being felt in various areas; from the closure of schools to the stagnation of the values of property. Less selective institutions face difficulties filling their classrooms, a problem that dates back to the decline in birth rates that began in 2007.
In the field of policies pensions and care for aging of the population, the situation is equally critical. The national pension fund South Koreafor example, one of the largest in the world, is expected to be sold out for the year 2055. Despite the introduction of several pension reforms by a special legislative committee, the window for action is short before the campaign for the next presidential election gains momentum.
The lack of public pressure to address these reforms is notable; According to Sok Chul Hong, an economist at Seoul National University, “the elderly are not very interested in pension reform, and the young are apathetic toward politics.”
Different governments around the world are implementing a variety of policies to increase the birth rates. Between these, Japan and Hungary stand out for their ambitious agendas, while in USA some legislators They are beginning to consider similar measures.
Since the 1990s, Japan has been a pioneer in the implementation of policies to increase its fertility rate, which has experienced significant fluctuations in recent decades. The Asian nation initially introduced measures such as parental leave and subsidized child care, although the fertility rate continued to decrease.
In response, the government launched bolder programs, including the PM’s recent package Fumio Kishidawhich offers monthly allowances for all children under 18, free tuition for families with three children, and fully paid parental leave.
Kuniko Inoguchiformer Minister of Gender and Birth Equality and now member of the parliamenthas pointed out that the main problem is no longer money, but timeadvocating a four-day work week.
On the other hand, Hungaryunder the direction of the prime minister Viktor Orban, have been implementing one of the most ambitious birth policies in Europe. Mothers under 30 years of age who have a child are exempt from personal income tax for life, complementing other support measures such as housing and child care subsidiesin addition to generous maternity leaves.
In the United States, although expanding child care subsidies and parental leave has been the subject of debate among policymakers, few have marked raising the birth rate as an explicit goal.
However, some Republican voices, including former President Donald Trump and Senator JD Vance of Ohio, have expressed support for the idea of economic incentives, such as birth bonuses, to encourage rising birth rates.
