London (CNN) — When UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced on Wednesday that the country would hold a general election on July 4, many observers questioned why now.
More to the point, why did the prime minister call an election he is almost certain to lose? For months, polls have placed Sunak’s Conservative Party far behind the opposition Labor Party and, as things stand, Labor leader Keir Starmer would not only win office, but would have a large parliamentary majority.
The answer to this question is simple: it is highly unlikely that there will be a better time. Almost everything Sunak tries seems to go wrong, and it is not unlikely that his popularity will get even worse before the year is out.
The last few days have been relatively good for Sunak. The economy appears to be recovering, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) updating UK growth forecasts and inflation finally returning to something resembling a normal level.
Nothing went catastrophically wrong in the last week before calling the elections. He’s a low bar, but since he’s been in office, he now himself has probably the most stable foundation to launch a campaign that he’s ever had or will ever have.
UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak delivers a speech calling for a general election outside 10 Downing Street in London on May 22. Credit: Maja Smiejkowska/Reuters
As a key Sunak adviser told CNN:
“The prime minister came into office facing a number of key challenges: inflation, lack of growth, immigration. And his main mission was to address these problems. And he has made real and significant progress on that. On Tuesday, the IMF improved our growth forecasts; yesterday we saw how inflation returned to normal levels; today we see how immigration decreases as a result of our reforms.
“So we have a solid basis for saying that things are going in the right direction, and the view was that now was the best time to address the country and say ‘this is what we’ve done, our plan is working, now who do you think?’ who has the plan and the ability to take bold steps to move this country toward a safer future.'”
Sunak had to call the election before the end of this year, constitutionally speaking. The fact that he had not done so until this week allowed his opponents to paint him as a coward, terrified of facing the public.
It didn’t help that the country had long felt the need for an election, nor that the Conservative Party had looked from the outside like a basket case for several years.
His mandate did not start in the best way. In 2010, after 13 years of Labor government, David Cameron won the general election, but fell short of a majority in Parliament. He was forced to form a coalition government with the centrist Liberal Democrats.
Cameron, against all odds, held the coalition together until the 2015 election, in which he won a surprising majority and secured the first all-conservative government since 1997.
The celebrations did not last long. The holding of the Brexit referendum in 2016 divided his party in two and made government almost impossible for his four (yes, four) successors. The first was Theresa May.
A failed early election and failure to pass her Brexit deal because her party hated it ended May’s rule, and she was replaced by Boris Johnson in 2019. Johnson ruined his own majority when he became so weighed down by scandals, including notorious illegal parties in Downing Street during the covid-19 pandemic, which had to resign in 2022.
Sunak (centre) shows off a bottling machine during a campaign visit to the Vale of Glamorgan brewery in Barry, south Wales, on Thursday. Credit: Henry Nicholls/AFP/Getty Images
Liz Truss was in office for 45 days, during which she wreaked enough economic havoc that the pound fell to its lowest level against the dollar, interest rates soared and inflation ran amok. In the end, the Conservative Party got fed up with the chaos and put Sunak at the head of the Government as a safe pair of hands.
Whether it has been or not is debatable. Despite what conservative sources may say about his career in office, his poor evaluation in the polls cannot be denied.
His flagship immigration policy, which would send illegal immigrants to Rwanda to process their asylum claims, has already cost millions, even though only one person – voluntarily and with money to do so – has made the trip.
His world-leading smoking ban, which caused Sunak great embarrassment when his own MPs did not approve it, has been postponed due to the election.
These are just two recent examples of how things seem to go wrong for Sunak. But what hurts him most is the widespread feeling that he is a loser and that his own party has so little faith in him. No amount of facts, figures or clichés can change the undeniable smell of failure that surrounds you. The feeling that something is inevitable is powerful in politics, and for Sunak, defeat seems inevitable.
Of course, it is not. There is a chance that the polls will mislead us, and there is a chance that the Conservative campaign will work.
They are making it personal: a clear choice between Labor leader Starmer and Sunak. Conservatives claim that Starmer cannot be trusted on national security, that he is a shameless opportunist without principles and that he has no plan.
Now is probably the best time to convey this message. Labor will have to rush to publish its manifesto, which will inevitably be torn apart by commentators. The longer Sunak delays, the more time Labor will have to get its house in order.
No one can deny that Sunak inherited a disaster. At present it seems unlikely that he has cleaned up the mess enough for the Conservatives to win another term. But given the magnitude of the task ahead of him, it makes sense for him to take advantage of this rare period of good news and hope for the best.
){kind=link}