The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) foresees one of the worst Atlantic hurricane seasons on recordreported this Thursday in a statement.
NOAA’s outlook for the hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 85% probability of above normal activity. The agency forecasts the formation of between 17 and 25 tropical storms, of which between eight and 13 could become hurricanes, and between four and seven could be major hurricanes.
NOAA warned that this prediction is due to a “confluence of factors, including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, the development of La Niña conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds, and lower wind shear.” of the wind, all of which tends to promote the formation of Tropical storms“.
Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA’s lead hurricane season forecaster, explained that Tropical Atlantic waters are “dramatically” warmer, already reaching typical August temperatures. Additionally, new research indicates that cyclones are intensifying three times faster compared to previous decades as they approach the coast.
NOAA’s forecast coincides with those of other meteorological experts. For example, Colorado State University predicts up to 24 tropical storms and up to five major hurricanes. Similarly, the British Met Office predicts 22 tropical storms, with the possibility of equaling the record of 28. However, the most worrying forecast comes from the University of Pennsylvania, whose scientists anticipate the formation of 33 storms, which would establish a new record.
These alerts are in line with the one issued earlier this month by the IInstitute of Meteorology of Cuba, which foresees the formation of 20 tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin during this season.
Of them, he predicted that 14 will reach hurricane status, four may be in the Caribbean Sea and another two in the Gulf of Mexicowith these possible six hurricanes being the ones that represent a danger to Cuba.
“The probability of at least one hurricane originating and intensifying in the Caribbean is very high (85%) and that one from the Atlantic origin penetrates the Caribbean is 70%. The danger of Cuba being affected by at least one hurricane is 80% probability“, indicated the state media Cubadebate.
In the last hurricane season in the North Atlantic, 19 tropical storms formed, of which seven became hurricanes. Cyclones have historically affected the Island, hundreds of Cubans have lost their homes and many have suffered the abandonment of the Government in the face of meteorological events that accentuate the integral breakdown of society.
Recently, the official newspaper Granma acknowledged that, after two years ago Hurricane Ian will affect the homes of 50% of the families of Pinar del Río, Only 59% of these problems have been resolved by the authorities, who, despite insisting that “no one will be left helpless”, do nothing more than prove the opposite.
