(From Washington, United States) Anthony Blinken tomorrow he begins his eighth trip to the Middle East to achieve Israel and Hamas accept the ceasefire in Gaza who proposed Joe Biden.
The diplomatic mission of the Secretary of State is haunted by the antagonistic positions of the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and terrorist leader Yahya Sinwarwhich still resist the pressures of United States and Qatar.
Israel aims to the freedom of all Jewish hostages and operate in Gaza to exterminate Hamas, while the Iranian-funded terrorist organization demands that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) withdraw from the Strip and grant the end of the war conflict.
The White House supports Israel with intelligence, logistics and sophisticated weapons, but considers that war entered an exit alley and that it is time to agree with Hamas, achieve the freedom of the kidnapped and allow the aid humanitarian flow without obstacles in all the neighborhoods of Gaza.
Qatar protects Hamas leaders in Doha, protects in bank accounts his millions of dollars and acts as deal maker of that terrorist organization in front of Biden’s various envoys to the Middle East.
In this context, the Emirate ruled by Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani announced his ultimatum: If Hamas does not accept Biden’s offer, It will expel the terrorists from Doha and freeze the millions of dollars that allow them to live like tycoons.
During the trip to Egypt, Qatar and Jordan, Blinken will ask his interlocutors to multiply political pressure on Hamas and Sinwar, while in Israel he will explain to Benjamin Netanyahu that there is no longer room to delay an agreement that supports all the West and supports the Arab World with the exception of Iran and its regional proxies.
The freedom of the hostages Noa Argamani, Almog Meir, Jan, Andrey Kozlov and Shlomi Ziv, that Hamas was holding hostages until yesterday in the Nuseirat neighborhood (central Gaza), It is a humanitarian victory which resulted from the secret collaboration between the United States CIA and the Shin Bet of Israel.
The freedom of the kidnapped Jews multiplied the difficulties that Blinken will face during his 48 hours in Cairo, Doha, Amman and Jerusalem. The operation in Nuseirat It was a political triumph for Netanyahu and a personal defeat for Sinwar.
In this context, the Israeli premier will continue with its position to demand the freedom of the hostages and advance in Gaza until all the terrorists are exterminated, while Hamas – with the immediate precedent of the freedom of the four hostages – will insist with the withdrawal of troops deployed by Israel in Gaza and its claim to stay sine die on the fringe.
The only one deterrent lever What the Secretary of State has in Israel is Netanyahu’s political weakness. The Prime Minister faced last night a massive march which demanded his resignation and the freedom of all the hostages, and opposition leader Benny Gantz – a renowned military expert – postponed his resignation from the War Cabinet due to the release of the four kidnapped in Nuseirat.
The intersection of these two political events, plus the pressure that Biden exerts from the United States, should lead enough power to guide a decision making that still belongs to Netanyahu. But the Israeli premier has his own logic of power, and Blinken will have to be very persuasive to achieve a noticeable improvement in terms of diplomatic negotiation.
2,100 kilometers from Jerusalem, in Doha, the Secretary of State will hear if the terrorists sheltering in Qatar are still analyzing the ceasefire promoted by Biden. The emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani He has already raised the issue with Hamas leaders who are not in Gaza, but the final response still It is in the hands of Sinwar.
Terrorists in Doha they got used to life that the Emir Al Thani offers him and they are predisposed to grant a ceasefire if it ensures its status quo. Sinwar, on the other hand, considers himself a martyr on the land and will not accept a single agreement that implies the permanence of Israeli troops in Gaza.
Sinwar has nothing to lose and he will wait for the news to arrive from Cairo, Amman and Doha to his refuge in the tunnels of Gaza.
Netanyahu is resisted by the relatives of the kidnappedits main military icon wants to leave the War Cabinet, and the international community -In block- questions his expertise in confronting Hamas.
Blinken’s tour will extend for forty-eight hours through the Middle East, and then he will fly to Puglia to participate with Biden in the G7 in Italy. The Secretary of State is optimistic by nature, but the crisis in the Middle East assumes an internal logic that facilitates the endogamous decisions of its protagonists.
Until last night, the ceasefire still was in hands of Netanyahu and Sinwar.
