He change climate It is already affecting all regions of the Earth. It is caused by activities carried out by human beings, mainly due to the burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas. This burning of fuels generates emissions of gases greenhouse effect They act like a blanket that surrounds the Earth, trapping the sun’s heat and raising temperatures.
It has now been detected that Human-caused global warming is advancing at a rate of 0.26 degrees Celsius per decade, and it is the highest rate since records began. He discovered it a group of more than 50 scientists they made known the new annual report on Climate Change Indicators. He published the report in the specialized magazine Earth System Science Data.
The report was led by researchers from the Leeds Universityin it United Kingdomand revealed that warming increased to 1.19° in the last decade 2014-2023. It implies an increase compared to the 1.14°C observed in 2013-2022, which had been in last year’s report.
Climate change on the planet induced by human activities already generates proven effects. Changes in rainfall patterns, rising sea levels, melting glaciers, warming oceans and more frequent and intense extreme weather events have affected millions of people, according to the report. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
It has also been found that climate change can affect people’s health (for example with the increase in incidence of diseases such as dengue and chikungunyawhich are transmitted by mosquito bites), the ability to grow food, housing, security and work.
“The devastation caused by the wildfires, drought, floods and heatwaves that the world saw in 2023 must not become the new normal,” said professor Piers Forsterdirector of the Priestley Center for Climate Futures at the Leeds Universitywho led the new report with the indicators of the problem.
If the year 2023 is considered in isolation, warming caused by human activity reached 1.3 degrees. This figure is less than the total warming experienced in 2023 (1.43 °C), indicating that natural climate variability, in particular The boyalso played a role in the record-breaking temperatures of 2023.
The analysis also focused on the so-called “remaining carbon budget”, which is the amount of carbon dioxide that can be emitted before reaching 1.5 degrees of global warming.
Greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, generated by human activities, are responsible for approximately 1.1°C of warming from 1850-1900 onwards. This has already led to significant changes in the climate, including more extreme weather events.
It has been warned that if global warming exceeds pre-industrial levels by 1.5 degrees, there will be more heat waves, longer hot seasons and shorter cold seasons.
Now, researchers report that the remaining carbon budget is only about 200 gigatonnes (billions of tons), which is equivalent to about five years of current emissions.
In 2020, the IPCC had estimated that the remaining carbon budget for 1.5ºC was between 300 and 900 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide, with a central estimate of 500.
Since then, CO2 emissions have continued to increase. Since then, CO2 emissions and global warming have continued. At the beginning of 2024, the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C was between 100 and 450 gigatonnes, with a central estimate of 200.
According to Professor Forster, the new analysis “shows that the level of global warming caused by human action has continued to rise over the past year, even though climate action has slowed the rise in greenhouse gas emissions.” . “Global temperatures continue to go in the wrong direction and faster than ever.”
Professor Forster added: “Fossil fuel emissions account for around 70% of all greenhouse gas emissions and are clearly the main driver of climate change, but other sources of pollution from cement production, agriculture and “Deforestation, as well as cuts in the level of sulfur emissions, also contribute to warming.”
The analysis is designed to follow long-term trends caused by human activities. The observed temperatures are the product of this long-term trend modulated by shorter-term natural variations. “Last year, when observed temperature records were broken, these natural factors temporarily added about 10% to long-term warming,” he clarified.
The doctor Glen Peterssenior researcher at the CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norwayalso commented: “The global climate is changing more rapidly than ever, in line with expectations derived from record levels of greenhouse gas emissions.”
“It is increasingly worrying,” he said, “that greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase around the world despite the collective ambitions and efforts of countries.”
The results of the new report were released as climate experts gather in Bonn, Germany, to lay the groundwork for the climate conference. COP29which will be held in November in Baku, Azerbaijan.
