Border tensions are common on the Korean Peninsula, but analysts warn that the current surge in incidents – gunshots in the Demilitarized Zone, balloons carrying propaganda to both North and South and Pyongyang’s heightened rhetoric – seem “different” and more alarming than usual.
Some believe that North Korean dictator Kim Yong-Un has abandoned any pretense of wanting to cooperate with the South. Others say he is beating the drums of war to distract the hungry and discontented people from him.
But there is another, much more worrying explanation. Some analysts see the latest escalation as a sign that Kim has finally secured Russia’s unconditional support and is confident that Russian President Vladimir Putin would back him militarily if necessary.
A new and different Pyongyang
“We can clearly see a change in North Korea’s behavior recently, becoming more aggressive,” says Hyun Seung-soo, an expert on North Korea-Russia relations at the Korea Institute for National Unification, based in Korea. Seoul.
“This is due to the change in the relationship between Moscow and Pyongyang, with Putin choosing to partner with North Korea as part of his global political strategy,” Hyun told DW.
That rapprochement has led North Korea to provide Russia with millions of artillery rounds and an unknown number of missiles, which have been used by Russian forces in the war in Ukraine, according to the US government and other Westerners. Both Moscow and Pyongyang have denied the arms transfer.
In return, Russia is believed to have provided fuel to North Korea, along with food the country desperately needs. Additionally, Russian scientists are believed to be assisting in the development of the North’s military arsenal, including missiles, satellites and nuclear weapons.
If all of this is confirmed, such support would violate the resolutions of the United Nations Security Council, of which Russia is a permanent member.
Balloons with garbage and waste
The sudden rise in cross-border aggression can be traced back to the North’s failed attempt to launch a rocket carrying a satellite into orbit on May 27. The launch was widely condemned, including in South Korea, as a violation of UN Security Council resolutions.
Pyongyang redoubled its aggression by launching a barrage of short-range ballistic missiles into the Sea of Japan and, more recently, launching thousands of helium-filled balloons filled with garbage and debris over the border to the South. The balloons caused little damage, but have been criticized as “disgusting”.
In turn, Seoul has ordered the reinstallation of vast loudspeaker systems on the border to broadcast anti-Kim propaganda messages to the North. The escalation of retaliation has continued, with Pyongyang similarly deploying loudspeaker systems on the border and repeating that it does not recognize the maritime border off the peninsula’s west coast.
The North “seems very angry”
On Sunday (6/9/2024), South Korean personnel stationed in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) said they fired “warning shots” after a unit of about 50 North Korean soldiers crossed the inter-Korean border, designated as half of the DMZ that divides the peninsula. The South has downplayed the incident and suggested that the North Koreans inadvertently crossed the poorly marked demarcation line. However, reports of gunshots at the border have raised concerns.
“This confrontation seems different, more dangerous than previous times,” says Rah Jong-yil, a former South Korean diplomat and senior intelligence officer. “The tension seems greater, as does the possibility of conflict.”
The US redoubles its support for Seoul
On the positive side, he adds, for its part, Rah, the South’s main ally, the United States, has made a series of high-profile moves and statements in recent weeks to underline its commitment to the relationship with South Korea.
A few weeks ago, a US Navy submarine was in port in the South, a nuclear-capable B-1 bomber flew a mission near the border, accompanied by South Korean fighters, and the US is maintaining a very evident surveillance of movements in the North.
On the other hand, this week, the US ambassador in Seoul, Philip Goldberg, warned that the US is “prepared for anything that happens.” (ms)
