The Government should be looking very carefully at the weather evolution for the coming months and the beginning of the fine harvest for wheat. All this has a reason. The executive power It continues to depend, almost exclusively, on the dollars that may arrive from the agro-export sector. According to the Rosario Stock Exchange and the International Center for Research on the El Niño Phenomenon (CIIFEN) There is a 70% probability of having a “Girl Effect” over some regions of the Argentine countryside.
The girl effect is not a direct synonym for “drought” but it is a kind of warning so that national authorities do not stop monitoring the situation.. “The ENSO forecast for the next quarter (July – September 2024) foresees around 70% probability of La Niña conditions and 30% of Neutral conditions,” indicated from CIIFEN. The Rosario Stock Exchange had estimated a probability of 77% in March, later lowered to 70%.
The girl effect will happen no matter what. However, this event is not synonymous with direct drought. “Precipitation forecasts for the July – September 2024 quarter indicate above-normal values in Central America and part of northern South America, and below-normal conditions in almost all other regions of South America,” added CIIFEN. .
In this climatological scenario, the BCR foresees a girl effect for October but that will be tempered by the climatic conditions of the Indian Ocean. “There are reasons to rule out the possibility of a deep drought like the one that decimated the Argentine harvest in the 2022/23 cycle because “The probabilities of having almost normal rains increase at a key time for wheat – in the critical period – between October and November,” can be read in a BCR report published in May of this year.
The Indian Ocean would play in the country’s favor. “The Indian Ocean Dipole is a coupled ocean/atmosphere phenomenon that occurs in the Equatorial Indian Ocean. The intensity is represented through an index that is the difference in sea water temperature anomalies between the west and the east. This difference determines whether it is in a positive or negative phase,” they explained from the Rosario Stock Exchange.
When the 2022-2023 drought occurred, there had been a “moderate Niña coupled with the Indian Ocean, added to the fact that we had no water reserves in the soil.” For this campaign, the situation would be different.
“The Indian Dipole index is expected to be in a neutral phase between September and October, canceling its coupling with La Niña. In this way, the probability of having almost normal rains between October and November increases,” explained Alfredo Elorriaga, GEA / BCR consultant.
“In this cycle, beyond the Niña projection, there are factors that are in favor of a successful wheat cycle. And yes, you can be optimistic for this cycle that is beginning. To the analysis of what is expected in climate, the anomaly maps of water reserves in the soil are added, showing that far from the worst sowing scenario of a year ago, the conditions with which the 2024/25 wheat cycle begins They are even better than in 2021/22,” concludes the BCR report published on May 15.
