French elections: Macron’s risky move and criticism of Le Pen

Saturday 29.6.2024

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Last update 17:40

France will hold the first round of legislative elections on Sunday, June 30, called early by President Emmanuel Macron.

The French format requires a second round that will be on July 7, where the 577 seats in Parliament will be defined and from there the prime minister will emerge, who must govern alongside the president.

The results of the parliamentary elections of the European Union (EU) and the fear of a greater growth of the trend in favor of the French right would put the weight of the ruling party in check. Getting ahead could become a masterstroke to avoid an unfavorable renewal in 2027 or be your suicide card.

The electoral situation was largely due to the results of the French MEP elections.

On June 10, Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement national (RN) party won with 31.37%, sweeping against the 14.60% of Macron’s Besoin d’Europe.

Although there is a noticeable growth of the right-wing wave in Europe, the French case stands out due to the advantage in votes and because it is the victory of the far-right party in the EU, Identity and Democracy Group (ID), which at the Union level remains the fourth force.

Macron, with his power to dissolve the National Assembly and call for new elections, is betting on stopping the opposition’s advance in time and maintaining his semi-presidential weight. The risk is the possibility of further undermining his image and weakening him in a possible duo with Le Pen.

The panorama is even more complex for the ruling party based on the latest surveys from Harris Interactive, IFOP, Elabe, Ipsos, Odoxa and OpinionWay. The percentages also show a growth of the New Popular Front (PFN), the leftist alliance that would even surpass the ruling party.

As a plus, Macron provided only four days to present lists. Opening two days after the call, the registration period ended on June 16, leaving a brutal trend of unusual inmates, including center-right Éric Ciotti who mutinied in the office of Los Republicanos (LR) after his party did not approve a agreement with Le Pen.

• Harris Interactive (June 21-24, 2024): RN 33%, ruling party 20%, PFN 27%

• IFOP (June 20-24, 2024): RN 36%, ruling party 20.5%, PFN 29.5%

• Elabe (June 19-21, 2024): RN 35.5%, ruling party 21%, PFN 27%

• Ipsos (June 19 and 20, 2024): RN 31.5%, ruling party 19.5%, PFN 29.5%

• Odoxa (June 19 and 20, 2024): RN 33%, ruling party 19%, PFN 28%

• OpinionWay (June 19 and 20, 2024): RN 35%, ruling party 22%, PFN 28%

If RN fails to obtain a majority, it will have to come to an agreement with the rest of the opposition to appoint Marine Le Pen as Prime Minister of France.

As a consequence of the brief period of negotiations granted by the president and the logical history of discussion, the relationship with the Republicans (LR) and with Reconquista, possible political partners, was partially damaged.

Despite having a smooth path, Le Pen must also contend with the fact that her party’s final percentages in the elections that decide the prime minister are usually lower than those in the European elections and those that elect the president. With special focus on the obligatory runoff.

Another factor is the role in the streets of social organizations and parties such as the Communist Party. This week’s example came with massive demonstrations on Monday in various cities across the country. In Paris they assured the presence of 10 thousand protesters.

The focus of this meeting, which brought together some 200 groups and unions defending women’s rights, was precisely on gender issues.

“During the debates on the possibility of converting abortion into a constitutional right, we were able to observe how far-right deputies felt very uncomfortable with the issue, asking that cribs be filled with French babies,” commented Shirley Wirden, head of the women’s rights of the French Communist Party.