Less than a month until presidential elections in Venezuelapolitical tension begins to intensify as the hours pass. The country, hit by years of economic and humanitarian crisis, is preparing for an event that could change the course of its history. However, the repression of the Maduro regime raises doubts about the integrity of the electoral process.
The threats that weigh on the elections are multiple and complex. Since accusations of electoral manipulation to concerns about the transparency and security of voting, Venezuelans face an uncertain outlook.
In this context, the sociologist and doctor in Political Science, Héctor Briceñopresented a research, carried out for the Global Observatory of Communication and Democracywhich reveals the existence of significant risks in the majority of electoral centers in Venezuela.
“They are risks that come from multiple sources, but that all converge in hinder, threaten, or obstruct the free exercise of voting that voters deserve and are guaranteed,” Briceño said in conversation with Infobae.
“Specific, 86% of the electoral centers, equivalent to 12,000 voting centers, which in turn contain more than 18 million voters, have some type of risk level.“, he added.
According to the researcher, the states of Venezuela with the highest number of polling stations at risk are Capital District, Bolívar and CaraboboHowever, it is in the country’s border municipalities where it has been most frequently seen that Chavismo operates under suspicion of fraud.
“The greater the risk in the electoral center, the government tends to get a higher percentage of the vote that does not correspond to the behavior of the votes obtained by Chavismo in that same election.in the rest of the electoral centers in that same municipality,” he said.
According to Briceño, “it is possible that many of these voters are voting under conditions of social coercion. It can be from the supervised voting or assisted votingunder threats of loss of social benefits, loss of employment, etc.
However, he clarifies that “just because an electoral center meets a risk condition does not necessarily have to happen there, but it is probabilistic, that is, the greater the risk, the greater the probability that manipulations, threats and distortions of the popular will will occur in those places.” electoral centers.”
The risk analysis on election day reveals two main dimensions of concern, according to the research conclusions.
The first dimension is character administrative and refers to the decisions taken by the National Electoral Council (CNE). These measures impact how voting centers are distributed throughout the national territory and how voters are assigned to these centers. However, the criteria used by the CNE to make these decisions are not transparent, which raises doubts about the fairness and transparency of the process.
The second dimension focuses on the risks themselves. electoral. These risks include participation and abstention statistics, as well as the possibility that there are electoral centers where the dominance of any political force, whether the government or the opposition, is excessive.
Of the more than 18 million voters Of those who cast their vote in places that present certain levels of electoral vulnerability, nearly one million people vote in places that face administrative challenges, while some 16 million do so in conditions that entail electoral risks. In addition, there are around 1 million voters who are forced to vote in centres that accumulate both types of risks.
The migration crisis In Venezuela, it has also had an impact on the country’s electoral behaviour, as it is not adequately reflected in the Electoral Register.
Although it is estimated that there are approximately 7 million Venezuelan migrantsit is estimated that at least 4 million of them are of voting age, but “not all of them were necessarily registered or managed to register on this last day.”
The repercussions of mass migration are reflected in a decrease in votes in large cities, traditionally strongholds of the opposition.
“In the statistics on migration intentions, that is, surveys that have asked people whether they want to leave or not, we have seen that there have been cycles in which voters or sympathizers identified with the opposition have been the ones who have mostly decided to leave,” revealed Briceño.
However, he says there are also Chavista supporters who have decided to flee the country for various reasons.
“When a Chavista leaves, it is because he has lost faith in the government, he has lost faith in the revolution and before wanting to vote for the opposition, he decides to leave the country.. What I mean by this is that the repercussions for the opposition vote are important. They are a number of votes that the opposition has lost when they are not allowed to vote. But the government also lost an important part of its electorate,” said the sociologist in conversation with Infobae.
“This has had an important consequence because it has reconfigured Venezuelan electoral behavior, especially between the regions or the interior of the country and large cities,” he added.
The redistribution of the vote in Venezuela has shown notable changes since 2021, revealing a new dynamic in support for the opposition. According to the results of that year’s regional elections, the opposition lost a significant number of votes in large cities, but increased its support in rural regions of the country.
The also doctor in Political Science pointed out that the profile of the opposition electorate has changed drastically compared to 2015.
Now, the opposition vote is focused more on rural zones and less in urban and middle-class areas.
As for the chances of an electoral victory, Nicolas MaduroHéctor Briceño stated that the Chavista regime has already decided to resort to fraud for these elections.
“The Government has already been resorting to fraud, continually modifying the conditions of competition, since the disqualification of the candidate or the two opposition candidates who presented themselves, Maria Corina and Corina Yoris, hindering, eliminating or illegalizing the cards of a good number of parties, persecuting opposition leaders and sympathizers. In short, I believe that without any of those measures that he has already taken, and that constitute manipulation; electoral fraud, the government cannot become competitive.”
“Today it seems very difficult, extremely uphill for the government to achieve a popular victory, not even using these mechanisms that it has already done plus other additional ones that it traditionally does, such as assisted voting, the threat and coercion of some voters. But I insist, I believe that the scenario is not yet complete. “I think we still have to see some of the moves that both the Government and the opposition have prepared,” he stated.
