From this Monday it is expected that a strong rearrangement in the portfolios of investors and small savers, since the impact of the rate reduction that the Central Bank faced last Thursday will be seen. Fixed-term loans reduced their returns from 70% per year on average to 60% per yearbarely 5% monthly, which they showed on Friday.
In parallel, as of this Monday, the increase in reserve requirements imposed for money market funds is in force, which will go from 0% to 10%, so the impact on this type of instruments will be greater. These funds, also called T+0, allow access the money invested at all times and gained a lot of popularity in a market that sought to cover itself from the flare-up of inflation and persistent exchange rate uncertainty.
But now, with inflation that has begun to show signs of slowing down and with the dollar flattened for weeks, the Government seeks “recalibrate” investment deadlines and forces both small savers and investors to look for other types of instruments to avoid losing with the rise of all prices in the economy.
Sebastián Suh, Portfolio Manager of Adcap Grupo Financiero noted: “The funds Money Market They had been yielding around 70% annually and as they purge the old instruments, the Money Market funds should yield between 50% and 55% more or less. “It is a drop of between 1,500 and 2,000 basis points, which is much larger than the drop in the reference rate which was 1,000 basis points.”
For Suh: “The Government wants to liquefy remunerated liabilities, which are the remunerated deposits made by the funds money market. So under that premise, the Government is about punishing lower rates for this type of instruments. Likewise, it is seen that the Government wants a kind of rotation of people’s investments. “He wants instead of taking risk from the Central Bank through the Money Market, they take more risk from the Treasury and that helps finance it.”
Although a priori the lowering of rates could impact the exchange gap, last Friday No major movements were seen in the price of the parallel dollar. At the consulting firm LCG they explained why they believe that the impact on the exchange market would be limited: “It could be expected some pressure on parallel quotes as a destination for the surplus pesos, but at times when the liquidation of the harvest will be present (even if it is not in its entirety), the 20% supply in the CCL market may moderate demand,” they said.
So, those who decide to remain in the peso universe They should look for longer terms to make their investment worthwhile. “With this new level of rates, the expectation is that a greater yield differential will be generated between the Money Market funds and the T+1 Funds. This is due to the possibility of working with lower levels of liquidity and incorporating assets that can earn something more than fixed-term deposits or remunerated accounts,” they said in the fund manager MegaQM.
With this type of bets, it would be possible to “lose less” in the face of inflation. Now if positive real rates are sought, one must migrate to other types of instruments, for example CER bonds. “The CER Category FCIs have been extending the duration (term) of its portfolio, positioning itself in the middle and long section of the curve to try to capture less negative real returns or at least that have implicit positive returns for the last four months of the year,” they added in MegaQM.
The market of actions can also serve as a refuge. After a rally that led the Merval index to rise more than 24% in dollars so far this year, there are still sectors with upside potential. In the SBS Group, energy was highlighted, with emphasis on the roles of YPF, Pampa Energía and Transportadora de Gas del Sur.
