(CNN) — The world has passed a milestone in clean energy: the rise of wind and solar energy led to a record 30% of the world’s electricity produced by renewable energy last year, according to new data.
The planet is reaching “a crucial tipping point” toward clean energy, according to the Global Electricity Review report released Wednesday by climate think tank Ember. The group predicts that global generation from fossil fuels will fall slightly in 2024, before experiencing much larger declines in subsequent years.
This is an important step towards the world reaching 60% renewable electricity by 2030, which is critical to meeting global climate goals, according to Dave Jones, director of global insights at Ember.
“The future of renewable energy has arrived,” says Jones. “Solar energy, in particular, is accelerating faster than anyone thought possible.”
A look at the data reveals the extent to which the global energy sector is changing.
Renewable energy record
In 2000, renewable energy accounted for less than 19% of the world’s combined energy sources. Now they represent more than 30%. Taking nuclear power into account, the world generated almost 40% of its electricity from low-carbon sources last year.
Although global levels of planet-warming pollution hit an all-time high in 2023, the rise of renewables has caused the power sector’s carbon intensity—the amount of carbon pollution produced per unit of electricity—to reach a record low in 2023, 12% less than its 2007 peak.
According to the report, the rise of renewable energy is also pushing fossil fuels into decline, slowing their growth by almost two-thirds over the past decade. In more than half of the countries, electricity generated from fossil fuels has already peaked five years ago.
The share of fossil fuels in overall electricity has fallen from 64.7% in 2000 to 60.6% in 2023. Ember predicts that this figure will decrease significantly in 2024, to 57.6%, when it begins to be noticed the rapid rise of solar energy.
“We’re going to have this renewable boom, which is really going to change the landscape very quickly,” Jones told CNN.
The solar energy boom
Solar energy was the fastest-growing source of electricity in 2023 for the 19th consecutive year, according to the report. Last year it generated almost twice as much electricity as coal.
The significant increase in solar installations occurred toward the end of 2023, so the full effect has not yet been felt, Jones said. “I think the year 2024 will bring some shock when you start to see those numbers,” he said, especially among those who assume that demand for fossil fuels like gas will simply continue to increase.
Although coal and gas still make up the majority of global electricity generation, their growth rate last year was much slower than that of wind and solar.
“The speed of expansion of solar and wind energy is remarkable and a sign that society can create rapid changes,” said Niklas Höhne, a climate scientist at the nonprofit NewClimate Institute who was not involved in Ember’s research. .
According to the report, the growth of renewable energy would have been even greater if it had not been for significant declines in hydroelectric production due to drought in countries such as China and India. Most of the deficit was covered by coal.
China in the lead
China is by far the leader in solar energy, with almost 36% of global generation last year.
However, the role that solar energy plays in China’s domestic electricity production is very different: only 6%, far below many other solar energy-producing countries.
According to the report, solar energy accounts for more than 10% of annual electricity generation in 33 countries, including Chile (30%), Australia (17%) and the Netherlands (17%). California, the world’s fifth largest economy, generates 28% of its electricity from solar energy.
An increase in electricity demand is expected
Global electricity demand rose to a record high in 2023 – adding the equivalent of all of Canada’s electricity demand – but the pace of growth slowed compared to the average over the past decade.
China was the main driver of demand, while the United States and the European Union saw sharp declines due to a milder climate and, especially in the case of the EU, a temporary drop in industrial activity.
Electricity demand will skyrocket starting in 2024, according to Ember analysis. Electric vehicles, heat pumps and electrolysis – a process used to make green hydrogen, a much-hyped clean energy – will increase demand, along with technologies such as air conditioning and artificial intelligence.
According to the report, the spread of these technologies will increase electricity demand growth, but overall demand will decline as electrification becomes more efficient than fossil fuels.
Overall, Ember’s report “is encouraging,” says Nancy Haegel, a research adviser at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, who was not involved in the analysis. “It shows that we can generate significant amounts of electricity with renewable energy.”
The question is whether the pace of the transition will be fast enough, he told CNN. “Decisions in the next 10 years are key.”
