The Mining and Energy Planning Unit (Upme) has presented the new National Energy Planwhich projects a scenario of energy transition for Colombia to the year 2052highlighting the incorporation of nuclear energy and a notable reduction in conventional thermal generation.
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It is worth highlighting that this transition scenario It is the one that presents the most aggressiveness in terms of the incorporation of renewable energies.to meet the objectives of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
This scenario contemplates thate by 2052, energy production in Colombia will range between 3,645 petajoules (PJ) and 3,841 PJ. This range reflects a variation of up to 11% compared to the fourth scenario considered, Innovation.
The entity’s calculations show that This increased generation will be driven mainly by Non-Conventional Sources of Renewable Energy (Fncer). Generation from Fncer is projected between 2,232 and 2,385 PJ, followed by hydroelectricity with 237 to 273 petajoules, and biomass with 412 to 416 PJ.
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One of the most striking themes of this Plan is that proposes the entry of energy from a nuclear source, at the same time as a drop in the participation of thermal energy for this horizon. “Small Modular Reactor (SMR) technology is being considered for progressive implementation due to its shorter construction times, greater accessibility, and other benefits.“says the document.
In the case of nuclear, it is estimated an installed nuclear capacity of between 1,200 megawatts (MW) and 1,800 MW, using Small Modular Reactor (SMR) technology in 300 MW blocks. This would be equivalent to the first phase of Hidroituango, which has 1,200 megawatts and today represents 5% of consumption.
Nuclear energy EL TIEMPO Archive
Camilo Prieto, professor at the Javeriana University and ambassador of the World Nuclear Security Institute, noted that this projection could even fall short. He pointed out that the applications of these reactors in various industrial sectors, as well as for generation, could lead to there being more in the country.
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The inclusion of this technologya is proposed to start from 2035, three years earlier than expected in the other scenarios in which the entry of this technology is estimatedwhich underlines the need to accelerate its entry into the country’s energy regulation.
This decision requires an indicative roadmap to secure negotiation conditions with potential suppliers and guarantee a safe and efficient transition, according to Upme itself. In this regard, Prieto said that the country must now begin the procedures that allow the nation to have free rein to develop these projects.
In contrast to the growth of this technology, The Plan estimates that thermal generation, although it remains in terms of nominal capacity, will fall significantly in its participation in the electrical matrix. The projected scenario does not contemplate an expansion in electricity generation capacity from conventional thermal sources, such as natural gas and coal.
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However, existing thermal capacity in 2052 would be equipped with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCUS) technology to mitigate its environmental impacts. The thermal capacity that remains operational, together with the new nuclear generation and a part of the hydraulic capacity, will provide the necessary inertia for the system, ensuring firm energy in the event of eventualities, the report states.
This, taking into account that Colombia’s current generation model, being dual, depends on thermal energy to generate backup during times of drought. For this reason, Upme explains that the variability of non-conventional renewable sources (solar and wind) will be complemented by the strength of nuclear, hydraulic and the remaining thermal sources.
Nuclear energy, Prieto explained, would provide Colombia with a series of benefits, among which are that it is a technology with very low greenhouse gas emissionsas well as polluting gases, which have health effects.
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This makes it fundamental for the country’s plan, which has goals of being carbon neutral by 2050.
Now, one point that the expert emphasizes is that for the date on which the arrival of this technology is planned, the levelized cost of energy (Lcoe) of this technology is going to be very competitive.
Currentlye each megawatt year has a median cost of US$69, below technologies such as offshore wind.. For the years 2035 – 2038 this cost could also have a considerable reduction and would even reach US$40 per megawatt hour.
About the companies, Some local companies such as EPM and Ecopetrol have already publicly expressed their intention to make advances in this technology.. The Antioquia company has been carrying out analyzes regarding this generation source for some years.
Nuclear energy EFE
To advance this plan The creation of a National Nuclear Safety Agency is required, in which permits can be managed to develop nuclear electricity.. At this moment the Nuclear Law Project, which seeks to regulate the applications of technology nuclear, in topics such as health, medicine, agriculture and industry in addition to energy.
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In the next legislature the project could be filed, which if it comes out quickly It would allow the country to have a reactor for the production of radiopharmaceuticals in this decade.
The Upme estimates that in at least three of the scenarios proposed in the National Energy Plan this technology could be present. This means that it could be operational by 2038 in the least aggressive scenarios (Inflection, Innovation) and in 2035 for the energy transition.
The Plan establishes that the technologies that would be the main ones for this time horizon are the Fncer. The installed capacity of electricity generation by 2052 is expected to reach between 96,421 megawatts at its lower limit and 120,800 MW at its upper limit. with a significant contribution from wind energy, which will represent between 40% and 42% of the total capacity.
In particular, heOffshore wind generation will play a crucial role, with a projected capacity between 10,038 and 18,000 megawatts. In addition, a proportional growth is expected in solar and hydraulic generation, with an estimated solar capacity of between 24,094 and 32,000 MW, and a hydraulic capacity of between 21,848 and 29,017 MW.
DANIELA MORALES SOLER
Portfolio Journalist
