Far from the impact that the severe drought suffered by the countryside last year had on the Central Bank’s reserves, the advance of winter or the sudden polar wave that occurred in May also complicated the Central Bank’s accumulation of foreign currency.
Friday’s day was atypical: with a traded volume of USD 348 million, a figure well above the amounts of recent days, the monetary authority closed with a selling balance of USD 52 million. This result is attributable to greater access by importers but, in the context of the week characterized by the gas crisis and the need to urgently import a ship, the market takes for granted that payments for energy increased precisely the account of the day.
Typically starting in June, payments for energy imports tend to demand a greater volume of dollars. This year, in addition to the eventual punctual payment for the day, the advance of low temperatures affected the entire dynamics of the exchange market which, during the first months of the year, had been unusually fueled by energy exports.
The truth is that, except for the operations on the last day of the month, the volume in the official market fell significantly, with an average of USD 210 million and purchases for less than USD 130 million.
“What is alarming is the volume dynamics, since we are in May, which is a month of high seasonality (Ciara comes with that behavior), however the average volume is at February levels, well below March (USD 152 million) and April (USD 167 million),” warned the consulting firm Outlier, which highlighted that in May net purchases accumulated about USD 2,400, a figure that is well below the value of April and March (USD 3,348 and USD 2,884 million, respectively).
In addition to the higher payments for energy that the market presumes, there is also the lower exports compared to what happened until April. This retraction, which reduced volume, was not, a priori, in the calculations of the market nor of the officials of the economic team.
“The absence of other sectors in the participation of exports in the last rounds is surprising, which may be explained by the seasonality of sectors such as Oil & Gas, which had contributed in previous months, but now, given the greater local energy use, they would count. with less exportable volume,” explained the consultant.
In other words, the unexpected record cold in almost four decades for the month of May not only led to a crisis due to the lack of gas but also affected the Central Bank’s lack of dollars, which saw its ability to retain foreign currency diminished.
For Nicholas Cappella, from the IEB Group, it was surprising that Importers had access to USD 400 million in the last round of the month. “We speculate that it is some specific operation to pay debt or energy since it is double the level they were demanding,” he risked.
Going forward, the numbers could improve somewhat. According to the monitoring of Aurum Valores, at the end of May the liquidation of dollars accumulated in the year of the agro-exporters will exceed USD 9,000 million, and in the remainder of the year almost an additional USD 15,000 million will be liquidated. The consulting firm recalls that, at less during June, 20% of the amount that enters will do so through the financial dollar and almost half of that amount would enter in the next three months.
