With the government involved in political tensions after complaints from the Ministry of Human Capital and the versions that a part of the Chinese swap would have to be paid, The markets responded with increases in financial dollars and new decreases in bonds and stocks.
The blue dollar advanced five pesos this Monday, up to $1,235. But this time the strongest rise came from financial dollars, which started June with increases of 4%, which take cash with liquid to $1,297 and to the MEP dollar $1,269.
This rise in prices means that the exchange gap with the CCL stretches to 44%, which increases uncertainty among investors and analysts who see a deepening of the delay in the official exchange rate, which It continues to move at 2% monthly.
According to Adcap Grupo Financiero, “the financial fundamentals (the amount of dollars and the amount of pesos) continue to evolve positively. But political uncertainty can have an impact. “For the coming months, the exchange gap will possibly move around the political sustainability of the Milei model.”
From Portfolio Personal Inversiones (PPI) they point out that “the agricultural liquidations could put pressure on the dollar and improve the accumulation of BCRA reserves”.
For PPI “in this line, what happens with the swap with China will also be fundamental, since It could cost the Government US$5 billion in disbursements if it fails to pay off the debt. “This could postpone the release of the stocks, which would be viewed negatively by the market.”
On the stock side, in Buenos Aires Merval lost 3.4% in dollars and advanced 0.5% in pesos, with a panel that alternated ups and downs. In New York the falls in Argentine ADRs reached 7.4% as is the case of IRSA. Influenced by the decline of the Dow Jones index. which lost 0.3%, almost no Argentine asset was saved in this round.
Something similar happens with Argentine bonds in dollars that they lost 2% on average and pushed the country’s risk back to the 1,400 point area. Finally, the JP Morgan indicator closed at 1,414 basis points.
The political scenario is key to determining the behavior of bonds. “Assuming that the Bases law is approved and with modifications, we believe that bond prices will move in the future around the advance of the pension formula in Deputies promoted by the opposition and that could complicate the fiscal balance. The underlying question regarding the sustainability of the adjustment remains unanswered and, ultimately, what determines the strength or weakness of Argentina’s investment case,” they add from Adcap.
PPI also notes that “at the local level there is no doubt that the main driver It is the future of the Base Law and the fiscal package. Although their approval is expected next week in the Senate and ratification by Deputies in July, the comments made by the protagonists will have an impact on the mood of investors.”
The Central Bank opened the month with purchases of US$ 59 million, amid lower settlements in the field and a marked decrease in dollars linked to energy. According to CIARA data, in May the average daily settlements in the field were US$65 million, 10 million below the average for that month in the last ten years.
