May ended with a positive balance for those who took the risk and They bet on variable income in the local marketeven with some values that exceeded the rise of the Dolar blue. In fact, increases were observed up to 50% throughout the month in the shares of companies in the leading panel, which configures a performance that It has no point of comparison with another investment in the fifth month of the year.
According to a document from Cocos Capitalin the last week of the month that ended, the most requested papers were Silver Commercial Society (COME +11.27%) and Ternium (TXAR +10.39%). The most delayed papers were Edenor (EDN -4.59%) and Macro Bank (BMA -3.00%). For reference, in the same period the CCL rose +12.48%.
Likewise, facing the second half of the year, investors see the accommodation of some macro variables. Among them, inflation, which in a A marked downward process could place the figure for the fifth month of the year at around 5%. Is it the floor? It seems not, since, for the market, there are still strong relative price imbalances and that imposes a still high base level, at least, for the next quarter.
Although the strategy that set the pace in April and May consisted of boosting the flow to the food industry Mutual funds (FCI), as said previously, equities were the big winner, since the expectation of lower annual inflation and the reduction in interest rates promoted this movement towards higher risk instruments.
Stocks: what the market is seeing
Thomas Ambrosettidirector of Guardian Capital, explains in dialogue with Ambit that, since the change of Government, it was seen “a clear and strong upward trend” in the market stocks and bonds. As an evaluation of the first semester, the analyst estimates that the first beneficiaries were companies in the regulated sector.
This, he maintains, because a policy of market deregulation allowed them to increase rates that were overdue and thus recover income and strengthen their balance sheets.
Ambrosetti assures that the energy sector “is Argentina’s workhorse.” With an eye on Dead cow “We have seen strong increases in companies like YPF, Pampa Energía, Central Puerto“, says. Therefore, Guardian Capital considers it advisable keep stocks in that area in your portfolio and even continue adding holdings, since it has a lot of potential.
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In that same line it is expressed Matias Fernandezstrategist at Aurum Valores, who maintains that there is renewed interest among investors in the energy sector, especially in “Oil&Gas” companies. The broker’s strategy on this occasion consists of moving away from the construction industry and, For long-term and patient investors, add “real economy companies like Aluar or Ternium”which could have a good performance when they stand on their own and not on macroeconomic expectations.
A sector: the common denominator
Another sector captures the attention of investors in Argentina: the financial sector, which has great potential. And, as Ambrosetti explains well from the 2023 electoral rally, The most lagging sector in local equity was banking“so I would be catching up with the rest.”
Finding that engine and making exponential leaps with each good news that improves the macro prospects in the future. “The return of private credit is another positive driver for bank prices, where the high rates that existed until recently made the credit business impossible.”, he warns.
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Fernández, for his part, adheres to Ambrosetti and states that, The financial sector was by far the best performer in May“doubling the evolution of the S&P Merval”. It is followed by the energy and public services sectors, fueled by monitoring deregulation in these industries.
Thus, during the twenty-two trading sessions in May, the S&P Merval experienced significant fluctuations. On May 15 it reached its highest point in six years (US$1,364) in both current and constant terms. However, negotiations on the Bases law and the fiscal package, crucial for the future of private companies in Argentinagenerated volatility, as maintained by Portfolio Personal de Inversiones (PPI), so the political sphere will undoubtedly be a driver to follow closely.
