The Central Bank lowered the interest rate on May 14 when it cut it by 10 percentage points and placed it at 40% nominal annual rate (TNA), which is equivalent to 3.3% of the Monthly Effective Rate (TEM).
It was the sixth loss since Javier Milei took office. And after this measure, the banks reduced the profitability of traditional fixed terms, which currently remain in a range of between 28% and 34% of TNA, according to the entity, that is, a yield of between 2.3% and 2.3%. .6% monthly.
What can you expect in June? Analysts point out that the rate cut rate was imposed by the decline in inflation. But now they believe that risks of tension with alternative dollars must also be avoided.
In that sense, Nery Persichini, chief strategist at GMA Capital, predicts that “we could see a respite in the path of lower monetary policy rates, especially after the reaction we observed in the financial exchange rate.” And he considered that “the market “It would seem to have put a limit on the successful trial and error experiment that involved cutting rates from 133% to 40% in 6 months without exchange tensions.”
Furthermore, the expert maintained that “the inflation figure for May, which could be around 5% monthly due to the suspension of rate corrections and the decline in prepaid payments, would be a ‘seagull that would not make a summer,'” but he stated that “The most important reaction, upward or downward, to reflect changes in expectations and flows should be found in Lecap’s short rates.”
For Pablo Repetto, head of Research at Aurum Valores, the Central Bank “should not lower the rate because there is still a long way to go before inflation is at logical levels.” In addition, he warned that if there is another reduction, “the fixed-term rate will also go down and there is a risk of further dollar increases.” However, the economist estimated that “at some point in June they are going to lower it if inflation is good for them,” and he emphasized: “I would hope that they do not go crazy and that they do not lower it more than 5 points.”
