The economist and market analyst Salvador di Stéfano, one of the most listened to gurus, provided new recommendations for investing in the current context, after the latest projections from the Central Bank, which open a fixed-term business opportunity adjusted for inflation, bonds in pesos and dollars.
Below are Di Stéfano’s advice:
Financial volatility took us on a roller coaster ride in the bond market. We believe that the reasons why these same bonds developed a successful price rally have not changed. The government remains firm in achieving a fiscal surplus, and not issuing money on a piece-rate basis, for both reasons we believe that bonds continue to be a very good investment alternative.
Inflation estimates as of May 2025 are at levels of 72.3% annually for the average of consulting firms that report to the Central Bank. However, the top 10 consultants with the highest number of correct answers estimate that inflation would be 69.3% annually. If these prospects were fulfilled, bonds in pesos adjusted for inflation would be a very good investment alternative. Even the UVA fixed term It would give us a return much higher than the fixed-term rate offered by banks.
With the scenario that we have before us, banks are going to specialize in offering products such as Mutual fundssince the traditional fixed term at 30% per year would be almost ready to retire.
Loans at interest rates lower than 30% annually end up being a great business for commerce and companies, since this rate is highly negative against inflation.
A few weeks ago, dollar loans at single-digit rates were very attractive, but with the fall in peso rates we return to a positive scenario for peso loans.
The Government assures that it will maintain the devaluation of the peso at a rate of 2.2% monthly, this would imply a devaluation of 29.8% annually. However, in terms of the wholesale dollar, the consulting firms handle other variants, which we will highlight.
The average of the Central Bank’s Market Expectations Survey sees a dollar for May 2025 at around $1,468.5, which would imply an expected devaluation of 64.0% annually. The average consulting firm expects an inflation of 72.3% per year, which compared to a devaluation rate of 64.0% per year would give us an inflation rate in dollars of 5.0% per year.
In the case of the top 10 consulting firms with the greatest successes, they indicate that the dollar in one year would be $1,426.2, which would imply a devaluation of 59.3% annually, this compared to an expected inflation of 69.3 Annual % of these top consulting firms would leave us with an expected inflation in dollars of 6.3% annually.
Conclusion
- The expected inflation in one year would be around 70% annually, this implies that the fixed term is adjusted for inflation, and bonds in pesos adjusted for inflation will have a very good performance. For example, the DICP bond that matures in December 2033 yields inflation plus 5.8% annually. The TX28 bond that matures in November 2028 yields inflation plus 2.2% annually.
- Credits at effective rates or Total Financial Cost less than 70% annually are highly recommended for companies that have a level of sales or profitability that mirrors inflation.
- The devaluation rate according to the average of the consulting firms would be around 64% annually, it would be below the expected inflation, therefore, the instruments tied to the evolution of the linked dollar do not look attractive. There is a very big divorce between the forecasts of the consulting firms and what the government invites us to project at a rate of 2.2% per month, which annualized takes us to a rate of 29.8% per year.
- In this context of projections, a bond like the AL30 that yields 29.0% annually is extremely attractive if in one year’s time we expect inflation in dollars of around 5.0% annually.
- The Actions They have had a sharp drop, but until the bond market is recomposed, they will continue in the background.
