The approval of the Bases Law in the Senate and the Law on fiscal measures in general opens a way for the Government to implement some economic measures to generate investments. Something taken positively by the market because it can boost many sectors, which These improvements will be transferred to company shares and dollar bonds.. For this reason, analysts consulted by iProfesional have What are the assets that can benefit? and that savers should look at.
In short, experts highlight that the sectors that benefit most from the political developments may be the energy and constructionwhich will also be boosted by the dissemination of Bank credits. In addition, dollar bonds stand out under national legislation, such as issued by 2030 (AL30), which is one of the favorites to make Mep.
““I am really optimistic, and I believe that investments are going to come from where the market is going to move, which is in the segment in which there are growth opportunities, such as energy, construction materials and industry.”details iProfesional Ruben Pasqualimarket analyst at Fernández Laya y Asociados.
Furthermore, consider that “hard dollar bonds seem very attractive,” where “I think they’re going to look for new price highs”.
All in one context in which the interest rate in pesos loses compared to the inflation projected for the coming months, something that makes it less attractive among savers.
Energy company stocks
For analysts, it is clear that the energy sector can grow more, with Dead cow as a spearhead since “barely 8% of its potential has been exploited, at a time when the world is in need of things that Argentina can offer,” says Pasquali.
In this area, there are several listed companies, and this analyst selects to invest in the shares of YPF, Pampa Energía and Vista Oil & Gas (through his Cedear).
Analysts believe that shares of energy and construction companies will increase in price.
“For me, View It is the one that is best managed and is one of the best companies operating in Argentina“says Pasquali.
By Nicolas Carrerasteam leader of Balanz analysts, in Argentine stocks also suggests positioning in energy and infrastructure companies.
“This is mainly due to the approval of the chapter of the Incentive Regime for Large Investments (RIGI), which has an investment floor of 200 million dollars and covers these two sectors among others. It will then be necessary to take into account actions of YPF, IRSA and Transportadora de Gas del Sur“he recommends.
In the same line, Alexander Stratiotisvice president of AG Valores, also recommends within the same sector Northern Gas Transport Company (TGN) “for the development of future gas pipelines, YPF for the development of Vaca Muerta and for the future liquefied gas plant”.
Meanwhile, the market analyst Marcelo Bastante It also recommends shares of energy and infrastructure companies that are linked to and can better take advantage of the new approved framework, which is the RIGI, and opts for firms such as, for example, Pampa Energía, YPF and Central Puerto.
On the side of Maximiliano Bagilet, TSA Bursátil team leader, leans towards the energy sector with YPF, Pampa, TGN and Comercial del Plata“which is quite late.”
The approval in the Senate of the Base Law and the drop in inflation boost the outlook for Argentine assets abroad.
Infrastructure, materials and banks actions
In addition to the energy sector par excellence, analysts consider that there are other sectors that can capture interesting increases. Especially in companies linked to materials, such as steel, cement, among others. And they add the construction, automotive and banks.
“For riskier profiles, we see potential in stocks, with a possible upside for Merval towards $1,400. That is, an approximate gain of 15%, where the index has great resistance.”Bagilet highlights.
For Pasquali, “the materials sector is also very behind, where Ternium, for steel. The thing is that the mortgage credit is going to make the economy move. constructionand the bank credit will make consumption move. There the automotive industry will improve, and if more cars will be sold, it will need more sheet metal, and Ternium produces steel for these two industries. Added to this is that as a company it has very important solidity.
Also, if the constructionmore cement will be needed, so this analyst notes that there Black Hill will also benefit.
For Races, since the Whitening and although some details remain to be seen, “the companies in the financial sector will benefit because it will be where this measure will be channeled through the formal system. Thus, we highlight Banco Galicia and Banco Macro that, if the measures also allow it, there is the possibility of an expansion of credit to the private sector.”
Dollar bonds
For analysts, dollar-nominated bonds they can perform well and reach new highs. Papers with maturities in 2030 and 2035.
Argentine bonds denominated in dollars, with maturities in 2030 and 2035, are the most recommended by analysts.
“For those who like to collect coupons and see their dollars credited to their client accounts, the coupon bonus debt issued by 2030 (AL30), which also pays a coupon of US$4.3 on a semiannual basis, and will have a coupon increase starting in January, is extremely interesting for that investor profile,” he says. Juan Diedrichs, Capital Markets analyst.
And complete that for those savers who seek greater appreciation of their capital, select papers with expiration in 2035 (AL35) and 2038 (AL38).
“For conservative profiles, we see high potential in the sovereign curve of fixed income in dollars, in the medium to long range. Specifically, in the maturities in 2035 and 2041, where we noticed greater profit taking. Furthermore, these instruments present a greater upside scenario in the event of a normalization of returns, around 10% to 15%,” Bagilet summarizes to iProfesional.
Finally, Carreras opts, going forward, as purchase opportunities in bonds such as global to 2030 (GD30) and 2035 (GD35), “since the Executive Branch still publicly mentions that it will not negotiate the fiscal balance, which is good for the financial result once debt payments are deducted.”
