Hear
The Central Bank (BCRA) closed in June the first month in Milei management times losing reserves for having accumulated a negative balance in its interventions on the local exchange market.
This is a data high symbolic content, given that It is an administration that could focus on the necessary recomposition of that tenure to, at the same time, be in a position to begin to dismantle the restrictions that scare away investment, especially those of foreign origin.
It did so by having to contribute another US$38 million to the market today, which means it closes June having sacrificed US$85 million in this way. And after having to provide foreign currency to the market in 10 rounds (of the 18 that there were in the month) and ending up selling almost US$200 million in the last three days alone.
The new and predictable sale, which is usually repeated in each closing round of the month, came after a day in which it once again allowed an increase of just $0.50 for the wholesale dollar, which closed for sale at $912. Thus, advanced $16.50 (or 1.84%) in the month, that is, still below the 2% adjustment guideline stated. In turn, the trading volume during the session expanded by another 7.5% and reached US$404.1 million, driven especially by demand.
The BCRA closed like this a week that was marked by the approval of the Basque lawis and the fiscal package, which according to the Government itself opens the door to a new stage of management, but in which they began to consolidate “Symptoms of increased pressure around two of the main risks surrounding the plan”, evaluated the Facimex Valores analysts.
“The two big risks to the government’s economic plan revolve around the appreciation of the real exchange rate and the depth and duration of the recession. Regarding the first risk, This factor is reflected in a certain stagnation in the accumulation of reserves. In a seasonally favorable month, the BCRA sold US$85 million in June: even without losing sight of the fact that there is no longer any foreign currency savings due to the import payment scheme and that There were greater energy imports (which have immediate access) with the low temperatures, it was not what the market expected”, they explain.
This is evident in the increase in demand for exchange hedging registered in recent weeks and a gap that is already close to 50%, among other things. “Without a doubt The June purchase result leaves a bitter taste among operators due to the abrupt halt in the strong accumulation of reserves with which the management began. Although it was a process that was anticipated, based on lower settlements as well as higher energy imports and payments, the issue is that It arrived somewhat early and more markedly“, agreed financial analyst Gustavo Ber, for whom all this explains the growing speculation “regarding what the economic team’s strategy will be” from now on.
