Two out of every three Argentines (65.2 percent) support the University March that took place last Tuesday and, in addition, a large majority of the population evaluates the educational management of Javier Milei’s government as negative. There is almost total unanimity among citizens in the importance of public education (87.5 percent), so that puts a very marked limit on the offensive unleashed by La Libertad Avanza (LLA). There are several questions that remain raised. The first, whether or not the massiveness of the mobilization constitutes a turning point in people’s relationship with the Casa Rosada. Second, whether the protest was only a response to the educational policy or expressed other rejections. And, third, how the university conflict itself continues, that is, if the march forces Milei to sit down to negotiate and change the defunding of universities and public education in general. There is one issue that is not minor: comparing the two surveys carried out this month by the CEOP, at the beginning of April and, now, at the end of the month, the respondents who consider themselves pro-government, for the first time, are below 40 percent : 39.3 percent. At the beginning of the month they were 43.1 percent. Those who consider themselves opponents already climb to 46 percent.
The conclusions emerge from the survey – especially for Page 12— carried out by the Center for Public Opinion Studies (CEOP), which leads Roberto Bacman. In total they were interviewed 1,200 people from all over the country, respecting the proportions by age, sex, economic-social level and places of residence. As usual, the system was through the selection of citizens on the most visited pages on the Internet, such as Facebook, Instagram and others. The survey was completed this Friday, April 26.
A turning point for the government?
The objective fact is that it was a march of unexpected dimensions, throughout the country. And to this we add that the CEOP survey shows that 65.2 percent say they agree with the march. Just 33.8 against. If the runoff numbers are taken into account (Milei got 56 percent), it seems evident that part of the libertarian electorate supports teachers and students. That was clear just by seeing the size of the march in Córdoba, a province in which Milei obtained 75 percent of the votes.
“In a polarized society, it is not easy to find a point on which everyone agrees,” he says. Bacman-. For almost nine out of ten Argentines, the level of importance of public education is very high. This explains why the definancing provoked a strong reaction. It reveals the conviction that Milei’s management has as one of its objectives to transform something that Argentines are proud of. The number of people was a shock, it was impossible to apply Minister Patricia Bullrich’s protocol and now we have to see how Milei and her team interpret what happened. Is it a turning point for the government? It is still premature to give a definitive diagnosis, but the turning points are multi-causal and characterized by the existence of many fronts to be resolved.”
Teachers, students, politicians and union members
The CEOP survey shows that there are issues on which society is divided almost in halves. 49 percent disagreed with the participation of political and union leaders, compared to 46 percent who agreed with these presences. Perhaps it was unfortunate that, at box time, the voices of deans, rectors, professors and students did not prevail. But that did not affect the march. Faced with the offensive of Milei and her army of trolls pointing out that it was a mobilization of the caste or that behind “a noble cause” “the always alive” were hiding, the vast majority of those surveyed (62.8 percent) they held that the main protagonists of the march were students and teachers. That proportion, again, makes it clear that part of Milei’s voters did not believe the president’s arguments.
It’s not just the educational issue
“It is always good to read underwater when such a strong event occurs,” he analyzes Bacman–. Our country is experiencing a moment of great polarization: a phenomenon rarely seen in a government with just under five months in office. Without a doubt, in this context, there is little room for lukewarmness. Milei’s management has no middle ground: it is either supported without question or rejected outright. The consequences of the fierce adjustment are still present in the collective imagination of the social sectors that felt its impact the most, especially those belonging to the middle and low socioeconomic sectors of society. And they were precisely the sectors that mobilized the most on the day of the march. So, in the face of such a notable popular expression, there are different underlying causes that also influence.”
The consultant maintains that “Milei has decided to deepen its disruptive image. The original disruption, the economic one, which involved the blood-and-fire application of the anarcho-capitalist model, left parts behind. It is seen in the devaluation of the Bases Law, for example. Meanwhile, the president maintains the disruptive image of him from his speech, his imitations and his attitudes. The truth is, they are not recommended in the crack frame. For now, there are those who continue to support him despite the consequences of the adjustment. But we must be careful: time passes and if the economy does not improve, the outlook may become turbulent and uncertain.”
What’s coming, what’s coming
The march showed that the government is deteriorated by images of faculties operating in half-light; the deans saying that at the end of May they will not be able to continue functioning and, in general, the student protests. As pointed out Bacman, several conflicts are hovering in the air: surely the main one will be the arrival of tremendous utility bills and increases in gasoline, the subway, and buses. In the CEOP periodic survey, a change is already perceived: the main concern now is that “salaries and income are not enough”, when before that place was occupied by inflation. “Public education constitutes a demand in itself that far transcends the polarization scheme, penetrating the very segment of those who support the Milei administration – rounds out the CEOP head -. Therefore, the march broke the crack structure, further agitated the internal affairs of the ruling party and the passing of bills was the order of the day. He failed the story based on arguments such as indoctrination, the existence of jobs or the influence of caste. The libertarian hard core believed that, but that is not enough. It seems evident that he is going to have to negotiate and it will still be seen.”
Of course there is the example of Chile: the increase in subway fares in 2019, which did not even impact students, produced a student revolt that ended with the right-wing government of Sebastián Piñera and even with the call for a Constituent Assembly to change the Magna Carta. In a territory of dry grass, a spark starts a fire. We will have to see the future of the student conflict and the other conflicts that constitute the dry grass of Argentina.
