The Base Law on which Javier Milei intends to build the beginning of his mandate will have a second chance starting tomorrow, when the Chamber of Deputies begins to debate the project that was shipwrecked back in February. To avoid another bad experience, the Government had to sacrifice several of the articles included in the original initiative and was forced to negotiate the entire text with the dialogue opposition blocs. The discussion, it is presumed, will be extensive: it would last until Tuesday and would probably conclude in the early hours of Wednesday, May 1.
Although the final version of the reform package did not satisfy the bulk of the opposition (it only deserved the unconditional support of La Libertad Avanza-LLA and the PRO), the Government takes its general approval for granted. With a floor of 135 adhesions in favor, in the support platoon there are 38 votes from the ruling party, two from Buenos Aires Libre, three from the MID (headed by Oscar Zago, former head of the LLA bloc), three from Independencia, 37 from the PRO , at least 17 of the 22 from We Make the Federal Coalition (HCF), at least 29 of the 35 radicals, eight from Federal Innovation and one from Creo.
As in February, the greatest difficulties for the libertarians will be in the vote in particular, since there are articles that hang by a thread and could fall if the ruling party does not oil its agreements with the opposition.
Paving the path that led to today’s session was no easy task. LLA had to get rid of dozens of articles to obtain the opinion that the dialogue forces finally supported. For example, it removed the part on economic deregulation, eliminated the entire chapter on Defense of Competition, reduced the emergency declarations to four and reduced the list of companies subject to privatization to just eight (for example, it left out Banco Nación). In addition, it expanded the list of State organizations safe from any attempt at dissolution (including Incaa) and eliminated the chapter on consolidation of titles of the Anses Sustainability Guarantee Fund that allowed shares to be sold.
Labour reform
One of the sources of conflict presented by the renewed Base Law has to do with the labor reform, which at the last minute was included in the majority opinion on Thursday.
Strictly speaking, it is a compressed version of the original document and basically limited to the repeal of fines for non-registration, extension of the trial period and the implementation of the optional severance fund as an alternative to compensation.
But it leaves aside, among other points, the penalty for blockades of companies and avoids messing with union interests by not eliminating solidarity dues for non-members, something about which the UCR claimed with its own project. Even when it emerged last week that the Government would grant the radical request, the head of the We Make Federal Coalition bloc, Miguel Pichetto, threatened not to vote on the Base Law unless the chapter on labor modernization was completely left aside.
In the end, as said, what remained was a limited version of the reform. However, the radicals and the Civic Coalition (which belongs to HCF but presented a minority opinion in the plenary session of commissions) will try to bring about changes in the chamber in labor matters and in the tobacco tax (included in the tax law).
There are also doubts regarding what may happen with the fiscal package and the reversal of the fourth category of the Income Tax, whose non-taxable minimum the Government intends to place at 1,800,000 pesos for singles and 2,200,000 pesos for married people with children. . At this point, the radicals are divided and a setback in this regard is not ruled out.
The UCR and HCF are also not convinced of the “goodness” of the Large Investment Incentive Regime, so they could vote against or propose modifications to the framework to favor investments of less than 200 million dollars, which is the floor established by the Executive Branch to access the benefits.
The scenario poses a dilemma for the “dialogue” deputies. On the one hand, they claim to want to give Milei the tools so that she can govern. But on the other hand, they are not satisfied with the final wording of some articles and fear that if they apply their veto power (as in February) the President will order the project to be withdrawn in full session, leaving exposed all those who do not accompany. The definition begins to be revealed today.
