According to him quarterly climate forecast developed by a large group of professionals from various institutions, normal temperatures are expected for the coming months (May and June) for Córdoba and the provinces of Cuyo and southern Litoral. Meanwhile, a greater probability of normal to below normal average temperatures is estimated for the province of La Pampa and the west of Buenos Aires.
On the other hand, records between normal and above normal are predicted for the northern region and over central and northern Patagonia. Finally, for the NOA region, northern Litoral and southern Patagonia, average temperatures above normal are expected.
In this scenario, another forecast of extreme temperature indices made by Soledad Collazo, from the Department of Atmospheric and Ocean Sciences of the Faculty of Exact and Natural Sciences of the University of Buenos Aires (UBA), reinforces the forecasts by predicting that Normal conditions would predominate for Corrientes, eastern Chaco and northern Santa Fe, while in almost the rest of the country there may be a greater occurrence of cold extremes of the minimum temperature for the time.
On the other hand, the same work suggests a greater occurrence of warm extremes of maximum temperatures for a good part of the country, except the south of Santa Fe and Entre Ríos and the province of Buenos Aires.
Normal temperatures for the entire central strip of the country
“We are entering that transition space between summer and winter, within the framework of a weakening of the El Niño phenomenon. Our forecasts indicate normal temperatures for the entire central strip of the country. While in both the north and the south, average records between normal and above normal are expected for this time,” explained Matilde Rusticucci, researcher at Conicet and professor emeritus of the Department of Atmospheric and Ocean Sciences of the Faculty of Exact and Natural Sciences of the UBA.
The northern provinces have already had very warm temperatures since the summer and until two weeks ago they had records above 40 degrees. And for the coming months they continue to have the possibility of suffering very high maximum temperatures. The minimums not so much.
And what about the rains?
With respect to precipitation, after a summer with abundant rains due to the effects produced by El Niño, the weakening of this phenomenon is leading to the transition towards a neutral phase, which will generate a clear decrease in the fall of water.
“The forecasts indicate that normal or below normal rains will predominate throughout the country. In other words, there will not be excess water anywhere in Argentina,” Rusticucci warned.
For the month of October, meanwhile, the emergence of a Niña phenomenon is expected, but it would not be as strong or as persistent as the last one that lasted three years.
Specifically, the report foresees a greater probability of normal rainfall occurring for the south of the Litoral, Santa Fe, Córdoba, east of San Luis, La Pampa and west of Buenos Aires. Values between normal and above normal are expected in the Northern region, NOA, Cuyo, east of Buenos Aires and to the east and south of Patagonia. Finally, lower than normal rainfall is forecast for western Patagonia.
The climate in Argentina
The final report State of the climate in Argentina 2023 indicated that 2023 was the warmest year in the country since the beginning of the series in 1961.
A value of 1.41 degrees above the pre-industrial era was reached and the increase of 1.5 degrees was taken as a dangerous limit. In Argentina, particularly, it was a very hot year, with a summer with very extensive heat waves.
“We continue to manifest climate change and at increasingly faster paces. March 2024 was the warmest in history according to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service. We continue to break records. It is very serious,” Rusticucci stressed.
The quarterly forecast is prepared by professionals from the National Meteorological Service (SMN); from the National Water Institute (INA), from the Chair of Agricultural Climatology of the Faculty of Agronomy (UBA); from the Department of Atmospheric and Ocean Sciences (DCAO UBA); staff of the National Institute of Agricultural Technology (Inta); of the Interjurisdictional Authority of the Limay, Neuquén and Negro River Basins (AIC); from the National Council for Scientific and Technical Research (Conicet); of the Undersecretary of Water Resources of the Nation (SSRH), and of the Regional Commission of the Bermejo River (Corebe).
