(CNN Spanish) — When the president of Argentina, Javier Milei, went up this Wednesday to sing on the stage of Luna Park, an emblematic stadium in the city of Buenos Aires, around five hours had passed since the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (Indec) gave the news that the country’s economy was falling like it had not done since the pandemic. The contrast could not be more evident: the president singing heavy rock songs, as part of the celebration for the presentation of his book, just when the economic statistics for March of this year looked more like the sadness of the lyrics of a tango. .
Pandemic values
The Argentine economy collapsed by 8.4% in March compared to the same month in 2023. But not only that: it also fell in comparison with February. It did so by 1.4% and thus deepened a seven-month month-on-month streak without growth. The last time an advance was recorded was in August 2023, 0.8% compared to July. Growth was interrupted at that time as a result of a devaluation of almost 22%, in the middle of the presidential election campaign, and the economy has not recovered again, at least until March, according to data from the Monthly Estimator of Economic Activity (EMAE) of Indec.
The year-on-year comparison also shows negative numbers since Milei has been president. The last time year-on-year growth was recorded was in October 2023, under the last months of Alberto Fernández’s presidency and in the middle of the electoral campaign, when activity rose 1% compared to the same month in 2022.
But the year-on-year contraction in March is the most significant in years: the 8.4% drop represents the worst since August 2020 (-11.5%), which occurred in the middle of the pandemic, during which Argentina endured a prolonged isolation that undermined activity throughout that year. To put it another way: in March, the economy fell as much as if the country were closed, paralyzed, something that happened during the coronavirus restrictions. Furthermore, the comparison base (March 2023) was not very high either, although the economy had ended that month with a positive sign (1.3%).
The countryside and mining, again at the forefront
The two sectors with the best year-on-year performance were Agriculture, livestock, fishing and forestry (14.1%) and Mining and quarrying (5.9%). This time, there were six items that grew, compared to seven that had done so in February, another sign of the deterioration of activity. Among the main falls in the last twelve months, Construction (29.9%) and Manufacturing Industry (19.6%) stand out. In addition, Wholesale, retail trade and repairs contracted (16.7%), which was the most dynamic item in terms of job creation, according to the latest official data corresponding to the fourth quarter of 2023.
At the rhythm of the skid, the ghost of unemployment returns
The latest survey of Labor Indicators, published by the Ministry of Labor in May with data from March 2024, shows that there have been four consecutive months of net fall in employment, with a reduction of 1.4% in March. Among the most affected sectors is construction. Since Javier Milei took office, 100,000 direct jobs have been lost, according to the president of the Argentine Chamber of Construction, Gustavo Weiss.
Industry, the second sector with the greatest decline in March 2024, also records negative data in terms of employment. Although the last measurement corresponds to February, a report from the Argentine Industrial Union shows that factory unemployment has been growing uninterruptedly since September of last year, something that did not stop as of December 2023, with the arrival of Milei to the presidency, but it deepened, reaching a month-on-month decline of 2% in the second month of this year. The situation is expected to have worsened at least in March, according to official statistics on the collapse of activity. Indec will publish its next report on the labor market on June 24.
President Milei did not refer to any of these issues during his presentation at Luna Park. In a parallel dimension, a mix of rock and roll and literary theory, the worst economic statistics on record in the last four years passed by.
