The process of primarization of the economy is beginning to leave its mark on the trade balance that, despite the surplusshows how the products that the country sells to the world are increasingly less elaborate and of lower price while imports of capital goods plummet necessary to modernize the economy, both the service and industrial sectors.
He positive balance of the trade balance was US$ 6,157 million in the first quarterbut due to the primarization and drop in prices that affected the goods that the country exports more than those it imports, US$614 million were lost in four months.
He Indec estimated that if the prices of the same period in 2023 had prevailed in the quarter, the trade balance would have experienced a surplus of US$ 7,171 million. “Under this assumption, and before the greater decline in the Export Price Index (-8.3%)Compared to him Import price index (-6.1%), The country recorded a loss in the terms of trade of 614 million dollars”, he concluded.
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The numbers for the first quarter of the foreign trade show a growth of 36.3% in the billing of primary products, which reflects an increase in quantities of 49.6% while the prices of these commodities fell 8.9%.
Also the Manufactures of Agricultural Origin (MOA)basically soybean oil and the remains of its processing, which represent the minimum possible industrialization, show this trend: turnover grew 7.6% on average from a 15.4% drop in prices with an increase in quantities of 27.2%.
He collapse of importswhich allowed the positive balance to accumulate, shows two effects: the first has to do with the fall in investment and production and the second with the commissioning of the Néstor Kirchner gas pipeline in the middle of last year.
Overall, 23.8% less was spent on imports in the quarter than in the same period last year, as a result of the 15.5% drop in import income. Capital goods (where no price variation was recorded), showing the companies’ decision to suspend the investment and modernization process.
The utilization of installed capacity in the industry stood at 53.4% in March, the latest data available, and half of industrialists (49.5%, according to Indec) expected it to continue.
With half of the industrial park paralyzed, in a economic recession (supermarket sales fell 9.3% year-on-year in March and in shopping centers the decline was 11.3%), and while Congress debates an official bill that grants unusual advantages to investments, There is no incentive for businessmen to invest in Argentina.
The consumption drop was reflected in the lower import of Intermediate goods, which are those used by the industry in its processes. The drop in volume was 6.8%, but as prices fell 25.8%, the decline in turnover was 21.5%.
The other factor that had a positive impact on the trade balance was the inauguration of the Néstor Kirchner gas pipeline, which allowed exports to increase and imports to decrease.
External sales of Fuels and Energy they grew 21.2% in billing, due to a 25.7% increase in volumes with a -3.5% drop in prices. Imports of Fuels and Lubricants plummeted 65%, practically only due to the effect of quantities, since prices decreased 0.6%.
This benevolent effect on foreign trade found a breaking point in May, when the polar wave that covered the country exposed the negative consequences of indiscriminately paralyzing the Public Works only for the purpose of showing a surplus in the fiscal accounts.
The order to paralyze the secondary compression works of the gas pipeline that were underway prevented doubling the transportation capacity, from the current 11 million cubic meters per day to 22 million cubic meters per day, the portal revealed. Econojournal.
Government maintains a debt of US$ 40 million with construction companies Sacde and Contreraswhich paralyzed the works that will no longer be completed by this winter, which will force the import of liquefied gas worth US$500 million.
While the gas purchase process is developing, in addition to the loss of foreign currency there will be a extra drop in economic activity since gas was forced to be cut off to industries to maintain supply to homes.
Probably, in the estimates of the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputoless gas would be needed this year, due to an increase in rates that discourages household consumption and a recession that paralyzes industrial activity.
But the need to show that inflation is subsiding postponed the rate adjustment and will force it to spend ten times more than the cost of the works so that gas is not cut off to homes, something that has never happened before.
