The week that has just concluded left several political lessons, which prefigure the tone of the ruling party – without much coordination between its parties – to face the elections that begin next October with elections to elect governors, mayors, regional councilors and councilors, and that conclude with the general elections of 2025.
It all started with the formalization trial of the communist mayor Daniel Jadue for possible crimes in his capacity as mayor of the Recoleta commune. The beginning of the trial was highly covered in the media, since the mayor arrived accompanied by hundreds of communist militants and the president of that same party, Lautaro Carmona, to which was added a letter in support of Jadue signed by 1,400 personalities (including the historian Gabriel Salazar, the poet Raúl Zurita, the sociologist Manuel Antonio Garretón, among many others). In this way, what would become a lawfare, that is a highly mediatized legal war, where what is denounced is not only an injustice, but a political persecution to bring down a figure who in 2021 competed with Gabriel Boric in a presidential primary, from which he was defeated. The government has been upset with this strategy, to the point that the Undersecretary of the Interior Manuel Monsalve (PS) declared that “justice is not to transform political forces into bars,” which provoked the immediate reaction of the president of the Communist Party. Lautaro Carmona, calling Monsalve’s statements “a somewhat gratuitous disqualification.” Just as relevant as the above is to note that not all communist deputies signed the letter in support of Jadue, which would reflect an incipient form of factionalism within the party. These days we will know the precautionary measure that will affect him, and that could well be preventive detention: if this were to happen on lawfare will have immediately escalated in intensity, generating effects throughout the political world.
Lawfare has become a way of fighting political battles when presidential figures (former presidents or possible candidates) or major politicians are involved in possible crimes, from Lula to Trump, now passing through Daniel Jadue in cases that are completely different. In this sense, the lawfare It is part of the natural landscape of democracy, although with significant damaging power to clarify the truth and dispense justice.
The other episode that took place this week was the extensive Public Account of President Gabriel Boric. In it, the president placed special emphasis on policies aimed at generating security in the face of a wave of crime that, although he has subsided, is still there, like a specter. The other presidential emphasis was the growing normalization of the Chilean economy, an aspect that is highly criticized and resisted by the right and the business community who do not see the same thing (which is surprising, since there are indicators that should serve to set the terms of the debate): a good part of the explanation lies in the annoyance that the president’s constant turns produce on the political and economic right, distancing himself again and again from his original government program and from his own coalition (hence the president ” don’t believe him”), out of realism and pragmatism.
It is possible that these shifts could distance the governing parties from their electoral base of support. Hence, President Boric has drawn a second front of battle, cultural in this case, by announcing two bills on abortion and euthanasia. The tactical movement has rationality, provoking a political and legislative debate without a destination, but which is striking enough to win over the young, middle-class vote.
The big problem is that, between lawfare and cultural battles, there is very little room to approve the fiscal pact promoted by Finance Minister Mario Marcel and even less to promote any type of reform to the pension system. It is not clear whether through the management of public policies (about which the Government has not been particularly neat) it will be possible to create conditions to face the October elections on a better footing and, above all, to shape public opinion and the state. of Chileans next year, in which a new president, the entire Chamber of Deputies and half of the Senate are elected.
Nothing is written: compulsory voting has so far been elusive for the left in the only election that has been held with candidates (the election of 50 constitutional councilors) and we know nothing about its function when in the October election they face each other, for the first time. time, incumbent candidates, installed in the territories and already known.
Subscribe here to the EL PAÍS Chile newsletter and receive all the key information on current events in the country.
